Category: Football

We remarked here before the weekend that the structure of the Munster provincial championship didn’t do either Kerry or Cork many favours, as it effectively launched them into Round 4 of the qualifiers (if not the quarter-finals of the Championship outright) without having much of a run-out. Cork may feel aggrieved at the iffy penalty call that led to Kerry’s second goal – and the defending that led to their first – but one suspects a second trip to Killarney, while damaging for their Munster ambitions, will serve them better in the long run.

Roscommon overtake Galway to become the second team in Connacht, thanks to their handsome win over Cavan, who drop two points to 17th. Longford’s good form sees them rise to the lofty heights of 21st.

July. Mundy’s favourite month of the year – and although there are already eight teams dumped out of the football championship, only now does it feel like the summer is beginning to take off. What is it about the glint of silverware that gets the gears moving? Cork and Kerry may be the only ones that can tell us – the Munster football decider is among the few competitive provincial showpieces left in the calendar.

Munster SFC final

Kerry (2nd, 1856) v. Cork (5th, 1775)
Kerry get the honour of hosting that decider in Fitzgerald Stadium, which could well end up being one of the crucial factors in deciding the outcome. Neither has had much of a challenge thus far – Kerry disposing of Tipperary, Cork overcoming Clare – and so with each county flying blind, the tie is more likely to be decided by the sheer class of each side and their ability to turn on the style without much of a warm-up. Kerry’s record – as All-Ireland champions, no less – suggests they’ll find it slightly easier to do so, and Elo gives them a 69.7% chance of success.

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers: Round 2A

Cavan (15th, 1276) v. Roscommon (13th, 1361)
This one could be the closest of the four. The two sides drew in Division 2 in the league, and Cavan were in the promotion hunt right up until the final day. Roscommon pipped them into Division 1 but then slumped to a riotous Sligo a couple of weeks ago and now find themselves with a tricky away assignment to Kingspan Breffni Park. That home venue essentially makes the sides equal in Elo’s eyes, with Cavan scraping the nod by 51.7%.

Offaly (26th, 993) v. Kildare (9th, 1439)
After the blue tsunami, what next for Kildare? In the grand scheme of things, a trip to O’Connor Park – to a side that lost to Longford before beating lowly Waterford – is not the worst assignment. In fact, such is Offaly’s low standing in the grand scheme of things that they only get a 16.9% chance of defeating their Leinster neighbours. That said, if there’s ever a time to meet a neighbour, it’s after they’ve been give a 19-point hammering at headquarters…

Clare (22nd, 1081) v. Longford (23rd, 1067)
These two are the most evenly-matched sides to meet this weekend – there are only a handful of Elo points between them – meaning the home venue of Cusack Park is key for the Banner. Longford make the trip off the back of dismantling lowly Carlow – their fourth match of the summer – while Clare nipped past Limerick before being demolished by Cork. Clare get the Elo nod by 62.8% but given the feelgood factor around Longford the game ought to be a bit closer…

Fermanagh (20th, 1194) v. Antrim (27th, 955)
An all-Ulster clash wraps up the round. Fermanagh gave Monaghan a good rattle in the Ulster semi-final while Antrim are here courtesy of their shock win over Laois… which was only necessary because they lost to Antrim in Brewster Park in the Ulster Championship. No reason to think this one won’t end similarly. Fermanagh get the nod, 82.7%.

As a Meathman there are certain things you just expect – certain records you grow to interpret as concrete rules, rather than historical quirks. One is that Meath Don’t Lose Replays – a rule which finally came to an end in 2007, when Dublin beat us in a Leinster quarter-final replay. But in 128 years of Championship football, that’s the only time Meath have been beaten on the second time of asking.

The other is that Meath Do Not Lose To Westmeath. 23rd time lucky. To Westmeath’s eternal credit, at half-time last Sunday, they could easily have succumbed to that same mindset and fought simply for a respectable scoreline. But onwards they trudged, and the result is there for all to see. Their win is a shot in the arm for the provincial championships and a reminder of everything that’s good about the Irish sporting summer.

Elsewhere, Donegal weren’t quite so sparkling as they disposed of Derry – but then again, as a departing Division 1 side Derry would never have been a pushover – and Dublin were… well, Dublin. Is there anyone to stop them? Dublin now have a higher rating than Kerry did after winning Sam last year – and, in fact, than any recent All-Ireland team (other than themselves in 2013). This blue bandwagon will take some beating.

The historic win sends Westmeath hurtling four places higher in the ratings, with Meath going two places in the wrong direction. Kildare, the team dismantled on Sunday, are now considered the second-best team in Leinster…

It’s funny how it only feels like the summer is getting going once some teams start to reach the ends of their roads. Five counties have already finished their seasons and another four will meet their demise this week.

But despite the summer ‘getting going’ with seven games this weekend, as we’ll see here, almost every game is a foregone conclusion. As ever, it will be well into July before the neutral’s summer really starts.

Ulster SFC semi-final

Derry (8th, 1513) v. Donegal (3rd, 1820)
Monaghan await the winners of this clash but given the manner of their wins against Tyrone and Armagh, it’s hardly to look beyond the incumbent Ulster champions. No home venue in this one and realistically the only hope Derry might have had was creating a cauldron in Celtic Park. As it is, Donegal travel to Clones with a 80% expectation of winning out.

Leinster SFC semi-finals

Meath (9th, 1471) v. Westmeath (20th, 1191)
Westmeath’s home win in the quarter-finals looked good on paper – a nine-point win over Wexford – but the scoreline flattered given Wexford were toe-to-toe with them until the last ten minutes. Meath, at home to lowly Wicklow, only won by four points but were missing most of their first-choice defenders due to an unlikely spate of finger injuries. There’s always some spice in this derby but if Meath get their full compliment back, Elo gives them a 78.4% of surviving.

Dublin (1st, 1969) v. Kildare (10th, 1447)
Sure, lookit. It’s the Dubs in Croker. In the Leinster Championship. Against a team that got relegated from Division 2 and needed two games to put Laois to the sword. 94.6% to the Dubs. The bookies make the handicap 11 points – but it’s a while since Dublin won a Leinster match by less than that…

All-Ireland SFC Qualifiers: Round 1B

Louth (25th, 1021) v. Leitrim (28th, 874)
Louth only got a day out against Westmeath, while Leitrim didn’t give Galway much of a game in Connacht. On paper that should make this one a tough call, but thankfully that’s where Elo can shed some light: with the benefit of home venue, Louth by 75.7%.

Armagh (11th, 1414) v. Wicklow (29th, 764)
Armagh will know they couldn’t possibly be as bad again as they were against the awesome Donegal last time. Wicklow, on the other hand, may also feel like they couldn’t possibly be as competitive again – scoring 3-12 – as they did in their outing against Meath. Armagh get the nod by a quite staggering 96.9%.

Wexford (23rd, 1028) v. Down (13th, 1368)
After going great guns in Mullingar for an hour, Wexford should feel they have a hope with a home draw in the qualifiers. Unfortunately they meet Down, promoted from Division 2 and losers by only one point against Derry. Their calibre should see them through. The visitors get the nod, 75.1%.

Tyrone (7th, 1583) v. Limerick (24th, 1021)
Tyrone are clearly out of sorts but, when it comes to it, are still Tyrone. Limerick could only come within two points of Clare, who then lost by 12 to Cork. Washout. 95.5%.

Well now. Just when Laois looked like they might have the beating of Kildare, they go and lose to Antrim; just when Roscommon look like a possible contender to unseat Mayo in Connacht.

That result in Connacht bears the main influence on the rankings after the weekend – Sligo’s heroics see them jump two places to 18th, while Roscommon slump three places and fall to 14th.

With all the talk of stagnant provincial championships – and Leinster last week having failed to deliver an obvious pretender to Dublin’s throne – perhaps this weekend’s games could show us somewhere where the presumptive champions might look over their shoulder. Monaghan are, after all, the only side to have beaten Donegal within the provence in the last five years – while Roscommon are on the back of a wonderful spring that may yet breed a better summer.

Connacht SFC semi-final

Sligo (20th, 1141) v. Roscommon (11th, 1425)
Promoted from Division 2 and with both Galway and Mayo on the other side of the draw. Roscommon have perhaps never been better set to topple the established order out west. Elo gives them a perfect 70% chance of prevailing in Markievicz Park and given their fare in the spring, it’s difficult to see how Sligo might scupper them.

Ulster SFC semi-final

Monaghan (6th, 1688) v. Fermanagh (18th, 1206)
It’s a little more clear-cut in Breffni Park, where Monaghan meet a side whose only outing so far was a win over Antrim. Frankly there’s little more to say than that – Monaghan get Elo’s nod by 90.2%.

All-Ireland SFC qualifier series – Round 1a

London (32nd, 570) v. Cavan (15th, 1269)
The heroics of 2013 look a long way away for London now, rooted to the bottom of Division 4 and of the Elo ratings. Cavan were in the hunt for promotion to Division 1 by the end of the League campaign and, even after having to get a plane to the game, are 96.2% favourites.

Laois (16th, 1267) v. Antrim (27th, 895)
After their two runs against Kildare, Laois might feel like they’ve at least got themselves up and running now. It’s often claimed that playing three weekends in a row is a curse, but one suspects that if the opposition are on the weaker side of average, Laois would play every week. Elo favours them by 89.8%.

Longford (22nd, 1055) v. Carlow (30th, 694)
Longford’s dismantling in Croke Park only came after a solid win over Offaly in Tullamore. A home match against Carlow – who, in Elo’s chart, are the weakest side in Leinster – should be no bother for them. 89.3% favourites.

Waterford (31st, 649) v. Offaly (26th, 960)
Neither side had much luck so far – Waterford destroyed by Tipperary, Offaly humbled by Longford – but that’s the whole point of the back-door: it gives sides the chance of something to salvage. Waterford would only have hoped they could have been drawn at home to one of the slightly weaker sides – Offaly are only five rungs ahead of them on the Elo ladder, but the gap is enough to give the visitors a 73.5% chance of winning.

With three Leinster quarter-finals over the weekend – and Dublin barely breaking a sweat with their demolition of Longford – the existential question occupying football fans on the east is: can anyone even give the Dubs a game? The weekend’s action should hopefully have offered a firmer conclusion to this question – but the answer is not the one we may have wanted.

Meath were the highest-rated Leinster team heading into the weekend’s action and found themselves in something of a catch-22: win easily and the exercise is useless, win narrowly and the victory must somehow have been too hard to come by. The latter was the case – and while Wicklow should hold their heads high after scoring 3-12 away from home in a Championship match, Meath will know that the defensive frailty of Navan cannot re-appear in Croke Park. They’ll be simply glad to have a chance to improve their lot against Westmeath who needed an hour to break the back of Wexford.

But what of Kildare? Certainly the scoreline against Laois – 3-18 to 1-11 – would suggest there may be the firepower there to compete. But that’s after a replay where they squandered an obvious chance to win once, and the champions will not be so forgiving.

As for the Champions themselves – they’ll simply be happy to beat Tipperary and get Cork to visit Killarney for the final; Mayo will feel similarly happy just to have shaken off a Galway side fuelled more by passion than tactics; and as for Donegal… well, wow.

 

The measure of Kildare’s win means they jump three spots to 10th – now again on a roughly even keel with their Royal neighbours. We’ll see just how even they might be when they share a billing in a fortnight’s time.

There’s been plenty of chatter in the last few weeks about the need for some sort of urgent redrawing of the All-Ireland championship structure to eradicate, or at least redefining, the decaying provincial system.

The talk is always a bit fevered – and it’s not as if Dublin have been winning the championship year after year after year after year. But we have seven provincial clashes this weekend and, on Elo’s calm and methodical basis, only one of them is set to be even vaguely competitive.

Still… Continue reading Football preview: History repeating. And repeating. And repeating…

Just the two games this weekend with one ending in a draw and the other with just a point between the sides. We remarked last week that both Kildare and Derry would be narrow-ish favourites and lo and behold, that’s almost exactly how it turned out.

For Derry it’s a return to an Ulster semi-final and although the pickings may be slim there against either Donegal or Armagh, it means at worst a visit to Round 2 of the qualifiers which may in itself give them a decent June and July. For Down it’s into Pot B in the qualifiers where they could meet Donegal or Armagh, or Tyrone, but may also end up facing Westmeath/Wexford, Meath/Wicklow, Leitrim or Limerick. For Kildare and Laois, it’s the chance of another day out before having to head to Headquarters to face a Dublin demolishing. So smiles all round.

Both games finishing so closely, there’s no change in the overall ratings ladder from last week. You can open the giant Google Docs spreadsheet if you want to see the precise standings for each side.

It’s a quiet enough week on the football front, with hurling taking most of the attention, but there’s still two intriguing provincial clashes on the way.

Ulster SFC quarter-final

Derry (8th, 1491) v. Down (14th, 1390)
After a disappointing League campaign Derry at least get the blessing of a home advantage against Down who’ll be replacing them in next season’s Division 1. The league positions would suggest Down ought to be strong contenders but Elo gives Derry a 71.6% chance of coming out on top. (It would be virtually 50-50 if Down were playing at home.)

Leinster SFC quarter-final

Kildare (13th, 1396) v. Laois (15th, 1318)
Sky’s 2015 GAA coverage gets underway in Tullamore on Saturday evening, though why Kildare are being asked to give up home advantage is somewhat mystifying given that every other Leinster quarter-final will take place on a home-and-away basis. (Perhaps it’s some sort of grim symmetry for Galway losing their own home advantage for the hurling quarter-final that’s now on the bill too.) Anyway, Kildare had a woeful time out in Division 2 and will see Laois rise to replace them next year. This match may essentially decide which of the sides can be considered 3rd in Leinster, behind Dublin and Meath – though the reward for the winner is a trip to Headquarters to meet the Dubs. Kildare are 58.9% likely to meet that fate.