Category: Football

Seven weeks to go before the All-Ireland final; only three more matches after this weekend, and the Championship has Not Yet Caught Fire™. Will this be the weekend it finally happens?

The lay of the land is that six of the top seven-ranked teams remain. 3rd plays 4th for the chance to face the team in 1st; 5th plays 7th with the winner facing the team in 2nd. It’s weighted well, if only the teams can provide the spark.

All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals

Mayo (4th, 1797) v. Donegal (3rd, 1816)
After already predicting Westmeath v Fermanagh could be The Match Of The Season, we hereby revoke the previous prediction and suggest that this one may in fact be the closest game of the year. There’s virtually nothing between these sides in Elo terms – Donegal are favourites by 52.2% – but that’s only off the back of their strong win over Galway. Mayo were higher-rated otherwise.

There are conflicting intuitions here. After their loss to Monaghan, Donegal will now only have a week between their win over Galway and their clash with Mayo. Fatigue might be a slight issue. But on the other side, their own win over Galway is as far as Mayo have been pushed all year: after destroying Sligo, is it possible to turn on the style and deal with the muscular menace of the perennial Ulster contenders?

To further put the game on tenterhooks: the League match between the two was a draw.

Monaghan (5th, 1742) v. Tyrone (7th, 1644)
There’s a little more of a gap between these two sides, but despite going into the game as Ulster champions, Monaghan are far from a dead cert in this clash against a Tyrone team which has successfully navigated all four rounds of the qualifiers after their opening-day loss to Donegal. After starting the summer with the dull thud of a dead cat bouncing, Mickey Harte’s team have managed to brush off some cobwebs and progressively improved to look like something resembling (albeit not replicating) the famed squads of olde.

Monaghan, on the flip side, beat Donegal but got that far by the benefit of a relatively comfortable draw in the Ulster championship. They’ll be thankful that their sternest test thus far was also on their last day out.

Monaghan get Elo’s nod by 61.1% but one suspects there might not be much in this by the final whistle.

IT WAS PREDICTED. Last weekend we were far from the only people to think all four matches would result in easy wins for the favourites. But this is the nature of a semi-randomised fixtures draw: before the advent of the qualifiers it was simply the case that there were only a few landmark games each summer, and the championship only ‘caught fire’ because counties were much more emotionally tied up in an undefeated streak. If you put in more games, and offer a greater chance for lesser sides to feature in the latter stages, it’s a simple truth that you will then get heavy defeats at a later point in the summer.

That said, it wasn’t all that fun to watch, was it?

Donegal’s victory over Galway sends them into third, leapfrogging Mayo who they now face next weekend in what may finally Set Fire To The Championship. Fermanagh’s eight-point defeat by the Dubs sees them concede just enough ratings points to fall below Down into 15th.

Last weekend’s two qualifiers both went against the book – Kildare killing off Cork, and Fermanagh obliterating Westmeath. Observers will hope that the form guide goes out the window this weekend too – because otherwise none of the four games might offer much by way of entertainment…

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers: Round 4b

Donegal (4th, 1794) v. Galway (9th, 1480)
Donegal were only the width of a shoelace away from a draw in the Ulster final and ought to perhaps think it is almost their birthright to be playing in Headquarters in August. Galway, though, have been the standout team of the qualifiers, disposing of Armagh and Derry after giving Mayo their sternest test of the Connacht campaign. Is that enough to give them the confidence for a Triple Crown over Ulster sides? Perhaps, but Elo doesn’t think so. Donegal by 80.9%.

Sligo (19th, 1205) v. Tyrone (7th, 1633)
The second match in Croker isn’t much more competitive either. Sligo were a surprise entrant to the Connacht final and didn’t get much for their efforts as Mayo simply destroyed them. Tyrone went out early to Donegal in Ulster but have rehabilitated themselves with wins over Limerick, Meath and Tipperary. Elo say they’re 87.8% to complete the qualifier route back to the quarter-finals.

All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals

Dublin (1st, 1980) v. Fermanagh (14th, 1313) 
One suspects the Dubs would have liked a sterner test at this level – they likely face Kerry in the semi-final, after virtually coasting the whole way through – but will have to make do with Fermanagh for now. Peter McGrath’s charges have had a great summer – they gave Monaghan serious rattle for the best part of an hour before they were finally shaken off by the Ulster champions – and if it’s Ulster defences that manage to unsettle Dublin, this one could be fascinating. Elo says the Dubs have this one by 97.5% but we all might hope it’s more close-run than that.

Kerry (2nd, 1878) v. Kildare (8th, 1542)
After their heavy loss to Dublin in the Leinster semi-final, Kildare only just about rehabilitated their confidence with wins over Offaly and Longford before their surprise eight-point win over a bruised Cork. But will that be enough to help them surmount the reigning All-Ireland champions? Personally, we think not, and nor does Elo (82.4%). That said, if Kildare can get rid of Cork that easily, and Cork should have beaten Kerry in the drawn Munster final…

Well, how’s about that. We suggested the match between Fermanagh and Westmeath might be one of the closest all year, and that Cork should have had no bother disposing of Kildare in Round 4.

But then again, if every match went to the form book, Kilkenny and Kerry would win the All-Ireland every year from now until Kingdom Come, wouldn’t they?

Westmeath’s hammering sends them flying back down the table again, while Cork fall out of the top five after their early defeat. Monaghan take their spot.

If you’re in the niche readership of ‘GAA fans who are also experimenting with a mathematics-based ranking system’ (in which case, get off my lawn) then the population of the latter stages of this year’s championships makes for some comfort. The six remaining sides are also the six highest in our Elo ratings model, and the top two are the ones who already have a bye into the semi-finals.

In the quarter-finals it’s 3rd-plays-5th for the right to face the top dogs (or top Cats, in this case) while the 2nd-ranked team will play the winners of the clash between 4th and 6th. A more perfectly weighted championship we could not hope for.

So, to Thurles for the All-Ireland SHC quarter-finals…

Galway (5th, 1914) v Cork (3rd, 2003)
Galway get this car courtesy of hammerings of Laois and Dublin before failing to puncture Kilkenny with any kind of major resolve. Cork fell short to Waterford in the Munster semi but ground out a morale-boosting win over Clare to jump to third, which gives them a margin of favour of 60.1% in the Elo stakes. Both sides will feel as if their season has been something of a waste if they don’t make it to Croke Park in August and so both are likely to rise to the occasion.

Waterford (4th, 1964) v Dublin (6th, 1906)
This game on its face seems a little more evenly matched – Waterford, boosted by league success and only losing points on one outing this year, are marginally ahead of Dublin who made good gains with their qualifier win over Limerick. Waterford get the nod by 56.6% but the form book suggests, with the profile of their season so far, it’s more likely to be a Déise Day.

Young Ned Sheeran is keeping Croke Park occupied this weekend so for the two Round 4A qualifiers it’s the cosy comfort of a more rural venue.

Westmeath (16th, 1252) v Fermanagh (15th, 1253)
It’s off to Kingspan Breffni Park for this clash between two sides who could almost, literally, not be any more evenly matched. The quirks of the Elo system – and the margin by which each side has won and lost its respective matches – means there’s only a single ratings point in it, meaning the match is a statistical dead heat. (If you’re being specific, Fermanagh are favoures to win by 50.12%.) That means your mathematics are no good here – it’s all down to reading the form guide, in which case the gut says Fermanagh’s late win over Roscommon should give them more momentum than Westmeath’s demolition by Dublin.

Cork (5th, 1753) v Kildare (9th, 1471)
It’s a little more clearcut in the game at Thurles, the first of three games there this weekend. Cork will be disappointed with their soggy defeat to Kerry in the Munster final replay, but Kildare have built some momentum back into their season with qualifier wins over Offaly and Longford. But therein lies the rub: those two teams are only rising from Division 4 to 3 next year, and beating them isn’t much of a sign of superiority. Cork’s mettle from two runs against the reigning All-Ireland Champions should see them through. Elo: Cork by 78.6%.

And so the pecking order becomes a little bit clearer. The provincial champions and runners-up have been found, while we also have all four of our back door survivors. There are now just 12 counties left in the championship, and while some are perhaps there by dint of provincial fortune, many can feel proud of having survived until August.

Of the four provincial runners-up, Donegal are the ones who can perhaps draw the most pride from their performance. But for the final shot hitting the wrong part of someone’s shoelace, they could have been facing a replay.

We’ll get to the quarter-finals and Round 4B games closer to the time, but in the meantime, the rankings: six-goal Mayo leapfrog Donegal and now stand in third, though their ratings are almost equal and a quarter-final would be very close should Donegal now overcome Galway. Galway take so many points from Derry that they switch places in 8th and 10th,

With hurling taking a week off before the All-Ireland series, the big ball code is making a big pitch for our affections this weekend – with no fewer than three provincial crowns there for the taking,

Munster SFC final replay

Kerry (2nd, 1842) v. Cork (5th, 1789)
We’ve made the point a couple of times that a drawn final suited both teams – it was of little use to make it to the quarter-finals, or Round 4 of the qualifiers, with only one significant challenge. Getting to keep the game in Fitzgerald Stadium may make all the difference – Elo reckons that on neutral turf Kerry would just shade this, but on home turf they should have a little more comfort and Elo believes Kerry will be Kings by 66.9%. But then again, the margin was even higher a fortnight ago…

Ulster SFC final

Monaghan (6th, 1700) v. Donegal (3rd, 1836)
Another final where the venue might make a significant impact – but on the side of the underdog this time. Monaghan and Donegal are turning the province into their own little fiefdom – they’re almost the Kerry and Cork of the north with their increasing duopoly on the Anglo-Celt Cup. Getting the final in St Tiernach’s Park in Clones is a boon for Monaghan, who might otherwise find Donegal’s low-scoring, low-conceding game difficult to fragment. Home crowd might help them overcome the Elo odds of just 45.9%, where Donegal are slight favourites.

Connacht SFC final

Mayo (4th, 1797) v. Sligo (20th, 1205)
This final should be a little more cut and dried. Mayo have dominated Connacht almost as strongly as Dublin have commanded Leinster, and with Roscommon the only team that looked capable of a big enough performance to defeat them, lo and behold, it’s Sligo who end up toppling the Rossies and making it into the final in Dr Hyde Park. Little to say by way of a preview here, other than to say Mayo are 93.9% likely to win out.

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers: Round 3B

Galway (10th, 1430) v. Derry (8th, 1507)
This is a cracker of a tie – almost as good a one as the qualifiers could muster. Having disposed of Armagh last week, Galway now have a sense of swagger back and are rewarded with a home tie against Derry who’ll be joining them in Division 2 next year. After giving Donegal a decent match, Derry steamrolled Wexford but will not be quite sure yet where they stand. Elo makes the visitors favourites by a narrow 52.6%.

Tipperary (15th, 1263) v. Tyrone (7th, 1603)
There were five matches in Semple Stadium last weekend; the Tipp footballers scored more goals in their rollocking of Louth (3) than the eight hurling teams combined (2). Their reward is to get another Saturday in Semple, this time hosting Tyrone who managed to brush off some cobwebs with a fluid second-half showing against Meath in Omagh last weekend. On the basis of their past exploits Tyrone are favoured by 75.1%, but given the discomfort Kerry had in brushing Tipp away earlier in the season, do not expect a steamrolling.

Perhaps given how closely they ran Mayo (at least on the scoreboard) in the Connacht semi-final, it shouldn’t be any surprise that Galway are capable of the odd big result. Certainly, after their trouncing by Donegal in their opening fixture, a thrashing of Wicklow wasn’t likely to restore much morale for Armagh. But a win at the Athletic Grounds marks Galway’s first away victory in the qualifiers since 2001, their debut year, when the Tribesmen went on to win the All-Ireland outright. A home draw against relegated Derry next time out could well be the platform for a decent run into August.

As for Dublin… well, what does it tell you when a team can barely leave first gear and still win by 13 points?

The Dubs’ rating is virtually unchanged as a result of their facile win over Westmeath; Galway are the big winners jumping three places to 10th, while Armagh fall two in the meantime, softening the blow of Meath who lost away in Omagh. Fermanagh’s late win against Roscommon sees them jump two spots to 16th, while Roscommon slide one to 13th. Tipp jump one to 15th as a result of their win over a drowsy Louth.

One of the busiest weekends of the year beckons – no fewer than seven matches, including a surprise pairing in a provincial final and two different rounds of qualifier matches.

Best not hang around, then… Continue reading Football preview: Third attempts and second chances