Author: Gavan Reilly

This website happens to be opposed to the principle of promotion-relegation playoffs – if you’re the top of one tier you shouldn’t have to jump through an extra hoop to be considered for the next one. So, in that spirit, we’re delighted for Roscommon and Fermanagh who both won progression to the next tier of hurling at the weekend – the latter beating Louth, the former overcoming Mayo.

It doesn’t have any overall change on the ratings – the Rossies in 22nd, Fermanagh in 31st – but we didn’t want to let their achievement go unmarked. Well done all.

You might think that there’s nothing happening hurling-wise this weekend but for four counties there is, perhaps, the most important day out of the year.

This weekend will see the two playoffs between the winners of the Nicky Rackard and Lory Meagher Cups, and the weakest sides in the tiers above them. The winner gets the slot in the higher competition next year; the loser will play their 2016 hurling in the lower tier.

A big deal for those involved.

Mayo (26th, 887) v. Roscommon (22nd, 1056)
Mayo were the weakest side in the Christy Ring Cup while Roscommon’s last-gasp win over Armagh in the Christy Ring Cup only went to prove how they’re following the mould of their footballers in moving on up. This local derby could be a bruiser but on Elo’s basis it’s Roscommon who’ll be playing in the 2016 Christy Ring Cup, getting the nod by 68.5%.

Louth (29th, 610) v. Fermanagh (31st, 574)
Fermanagh were evidently delighted – and rightfully so – with their Lory Meagher Cup victory but it will feel a bit facile if they can’t get over the line and defeat Louth. The ratings suggest there’s not a whole lot between the sides and so in essence Louth are favoured simply because of their previous standing in the higher tier. Louth with the nod but only by 54.1% – within the margin of error for contests like this.

We haven’t yet seen either of the top two sides in the country, but we remarked on Thursday that the winner of Waterford v Cork would probably come closest to breaking their duopoly on Liam MacCarthy. With Waterford now putting Cork to the sword twice in five weeks, it seems safe to proclaim them as the great pretenders – certainly within the Munster ranks.

In Leinster it’s difficult to know where to start for Dublin, who will know they could have done better if only they’d shown up. Going eight points down in the first four minutes was hardly ideal but the Dubs never showed the gumption one would expect of them if they were to fight back – though being so far in arrears after ten or fifteen minutes meant there was never any real hope of a competitive climax and little point in trying to create it.

For Westmeath, it’s now a case of swallowing pride and going back to the dressing room for another outing and the hope of one big performance. Offaly, it’s a summer of wondering where it all went wrong – and a back-door match against either Clare, Westmeath or the Dubs. Nobody quite knows which of those three they’d prefer to meet.

For Galway, it’s a sense of… could this really be it? A win over Laois would bring them to Kilkenny and the prospect of more Leinster silverware. Last time that happened, it was the year they pushed the Cats all the way in two All-Ireland finals.

So: could this really be it?

Munster SFC semi-final

Waterford (4th, 1941) v. Cork (3rd, 1991)
Realistically the winner of this is the one most likely to to be able to break the Kilkenny-Tipperary duopoly – and is guaranteed a spot at least in the All-Ireland quarter-final. (That’s a mixed blessing: it’s over ten years since the Munster champions also won the All-Ireland, but it’s not much of a summer if someone wins this, loses the provincial final, and loses an All-Ireland quarter-final too.) Cork get the nod by 55.7% but they were favoured by more when the two sides met at the same venue (Thurles) in the League final only a couple of months ago.

Leinster SHC quarter-finals

Galway (7th, 1868) v. Dublin (6th, 1904)
After last week’s damp squib in Croker – which only really got going in the last ten minutes – it’s to Tullamore for this replay. The Dubs are still favoured by 54.1% but Galway will know they underperformed last Sunday and may be all the better for having given Joe Canning a full 70-minute workout that he’d been missing. The winner plays the victor of Laois v Offaly.

Laois (12th, 1494) v. Offaly (10th, 1591)
This one could also go right down to the wire. Offaly have the greater heritage but haven’t been in great form in recent years, while Laois’s time in Division 1B has actually given them a sense of comfort about where they are (and the occasional morale-boosting victory). Laois also get home advantage here which means their slightly lower rating is totally ameliorated. Elo gives the home side the nod by 50.3% – meaning it’s a very very close call.

Westmeath (13th, 1371) v. Wexford (9th, 1699)
Westmeath are naturally the underdog here – especially after Wexford’s heroic trip to the quarter-finals last year – but also have the benefit of three games under their belt, while Wexford are coming into this relatively cold. The visitors are 74% favourites to win this one and find themselves travelling to Nowlan Park to meet Kilkenny in a fortnight. If Westmeath win it, they’ll get to host the Cats next time out.

Christy Ring Cup final

Kerry (11th, 1514) v. Derry (18th, 1222)
After their massacre of Kildare last weekend, it would be a hardy soul that would bet against Kerry in this Saturday’s showpiece. They’re justifiable 79.3% favourites to defeat Derry, who at least had a strong showing against Down. A win for the Kingdom would be the crowning achievement on an excellent year which has already seen them gain deserved promotion to Division 1B.

Nicky Rackard Cup final

Armagh (22nd, 1034) v. Roscommon (23rd, 1029)
For TV reasons this is the opening match in the triple-header at Croker this Saturday but it could well be the best of the lot. Both sides have come here through the direct route of winning all three of their earlier clashes, and have virtually identical Elo ratings. Armagh get the marginal nod by just 50.6% but really this one could be anyone’s guess.

Lory Meagher Cup final

Sligo (33rd, 383) v. Fermanagh (31st, 555)
Sligo were easy winners when the same sides met a week ago, but at that point Fermanagh had already qualified for the final and were perhaps resting their strongest players. That defeat was the only one Fermanagh have faced throughout the campaign, though Sligo’s only defeat was by a single goal against last year’s winners Warwickshire. Fermanagh’s previous record suggests they’re 69% favourites but a win for Sligo would not be so unexpected.

It’s probably only right that Galway and Dublin will have to do it all over again. Neither side really got going and it seems correct that neither side will be dumped out of a provincial championship without at least showing up for their first match.

Elsewhere, what the hell happened to Kildare?! Whatever it was, they fall to 15th in the rankings with Kerry rising to 11th after their massacre in Newbridge – making it clear now that they fully merit a spot in the Liam MacCarthy Cup assuming they win against Derry on Saturday. More of that on Thursday.