Category: Hurling

And so to Nowlan Park – a place that has seen many hurling glories, but not so many recent matches featuring neutral inter-county sides.

Melling Road, for those who don’t know it, is the name of the second-last fence on the Aintree Grand National circuit. (I hope the metaphor speaks for itself…)

Division 1 semi-finals

Tipperary (2nd, 2133) v. Waterford (5th, 1868)
Tipperary haven’t had a whole lot of bother in the campaign so far, but Waterford have been the shining lights of Division 1B and were well worth their win over Galway in the quarter-final. Tipperary won’t have too many happy memories of Nowlan Park – the 2013 Qualifier still rings painfully, and last season they came out on the wrong end of a ten-goal thriller in the 1A group stage. But the opponents are different today, and on neutral ground Tipperary should be 77.2% favourites to prevail.

Cork (3rd, 2015) v.  Dublin (4th, 1931)
Dublin are the one semi-finals to have already visited Nowlan Park and left happy with a 0-25 to 3-11 win earlier this year. Cork lost to the Cats at home on opening night but improved steadily since then and their mettle may have been proven with their spirited comeback win over Wexford last time out. On neutral ground it’s the Corkonians who get the nod by 59.6%.

Division 2 promotion/relegation play-off

Donegal (26th, 860) v. Tyrone (22nd, 967)
Last week’s match between the two was overshadowed by Kerry’s heroics in defeating Antrim, but the match in Owenbeg was an absolute thriller – the scoreline of 4-13 to 4-13 says it all really. The two sides deserve the slightly more luxury venue of Celtic Park in Derry for their replay.

Tyrone are the side on the way up from 3A and although they couldn’t vindicate their Elo favourite status last time out, the spirited nature of their challenge means the Elo bot is ready to fancy them again. The Red Hand man are 62.1% favourites to make it up.

Will we be correct? The latest rankings – which could see Tipperary make it to the top – will be here on Sunday evening.

The Elo model has been able to tell for some time that the Kerry hurlers, and the way they went about their victories, were some distance better than the teams they hoped to kick out of Division 1.

With no offence intended towards Antrim, Saturday’s playoff showed exactly that. It was only a one-point game and Antrim will know that on other days they would have had their victory. But Kerry – the minnows of Munster hurling – have been plugging away for a long time. For those of us from lesser hurling counties, there is reason to dream. An Ríocht Abú.

The win cements Kerry’s spot in 12th in the Elo ratings (fittingly enough) while the victory sends Antrim down one spot, slipping behind Kildare.

Donegal and Tyrone played out an incredible draw at 4-13 apiece (lending further weight to this author’s opinion that the Ulster Hurling Championship, when played properly, is the most competitive senior GAA competition) and will have to meet again to decide who gets to play in Division 2B.

We’ll be back on Thursday with our preview of the NHL quarter-finals.

Kerry and Tyrone already have some hurling silverware in the bag for this season – but the hurling folk of those counties will know that the only real way to further the standard is to play more regularly against better teams.

That’s why they’ll likely have been staying sober for the last week – knowing that these promotion playoffs for a spot in Divisions 1B and 2B next year are perhaps a greater spoil than the silverware in the cabinet.

Division 1B promotion playoff

Antrim (13th, 1362) v. Kerry (12th, 1425)
As the photograph above will tell you, these sides don’t meet very often – in fact, the most recent photograph we could find is from the Division 2 final in Croke Park in 2003. Antrim won by six points then, but Dr Elo isn’t so optimistic this time. Antrim have lost all six outings so far in this League season; Kerry took seven points in the group stage before stunning Westmeath last week, and get a ratings boost as a result. This game being on neutral ground, Kerry get the nod to secure promotion by 57.2%.

Division 2B promotion playoff

Donegal (26th, 855) v. Tyrone (22nd, 972)
Donegal, losing all six of their games so far; Tyrone winning five and drawing the other. Dr Elo doesn’t see much reason for the form guide to be thrown out – and says Tyrone should win this clash, and a spot in Division 2B, with a likelihood of 63.2%.

We’ll be back after the weekend’s matches to update the charts, and to preview the Division 1 semi-finals.

Four pieces of lower-tier silverware awarded this Saturday – but for two of the winners the League season is not yet over.

Kerry only beat Westmeath by six points in the end, but led by 11 points at one stage early in the second half after a flurry of five goals. That wouldn’t necessarily have led them any higher in the table but it helps to bridge the gap – and should they win the playoff against Antrim next weekend (which Elo deems likely – but more anon) they’ll have rightfully earned their status in Division 1. As it stands, Kerry remain in 12th but Westmeath fall two slots to 16th on the back of the defeat.

Kildare, Tyrone and Warwickshire are the other winners of the weekend; Kildare rise one place but that’s partly because of Westmeath’s slide, though the new rating proves that the Lilywhites are worthy of Division 2A. Tyrone are the only others to gain any ground on the table, jumping over Armagh.

The finals of the four lower League divisions take place on Saturday – we’ll be back later in the week to preview them.

Getting a good run in the summer championships is generally the prime objective for an inter-county side, but for those on the lower tiers, promotion through the National Leagues is a seriously important goal.

The likes of Kerry and Westmeath have real ambitions to be among the higher tiers of hurling, while sides lower down the food chain like Meath and Kildare shelter pockets of diehard hurling folk whose standard of play would be hugely improved by continued exposure to those who simply play the game better.

Division 2A final

Westmeath (15th, 1336) v. Kerry (13th, 1404)
The winner of this match isn’t guaranteed promotion to Division 1 – they’ll still have to win a playoff against Antrim – but the winner of the playoff will by definition have a higher Elo rating than the men in Saffron. Kerry come in with a slightly higher rating – mostly because of the margin of victory in previous matches – but Westmeath were 15-point winners when the sides met in Tralee. This game takes place in Limerick and Kerry get the nod by 57.8%.

Division 2B final

Kildare (16th, 1325) v. Meath (19th, 1242)
Kildare manager Brian Lawlor lashed out this week at the bizarre promotion system within the Leagues – arguing that, having beaten all five sides in his division, his team should already be deemed ‘champions’ and promoted automatically anyway. He may have a point – the Six Nations has a comparable format but doesn’t have a one-off final where a Grand Slam side can still leave without silverware.

But at least the winners of Division 2B have the minor luxury of being promoted directly to 2A and not having to play a playoff first. And indeed, a cynic would argue that if a Grand Slam-winning side loses a final, and can’t win on the very day when it counts most, they perhaps shouldn’t be going up in the first place.

That said, this local grudge match – between two sides who have a habit of meeting at the business end of Keogh, League and Ring cups – is still likely to go Kildare’s way. Among their five wins is a 10-point defeat of Meath, and on neutral ground in Mullingar they’re 59.4% to make the leap.

Division 3A final

Tyrone (24th, 956) v. Monaghan (29th, 791)
Of the four games this weekend, this one could be the most clear cut, although the sides drew in the group stage and neither lost a single match throughout. Tyrone have accrued about 80 ratings points this season but Monaghan have taken twice as much and would probably get a better Elo standing if they weren’t coming from a low base. The sides meet in Keady, Armagh, where Tyrone get the nod by 68.1% and will go on to play Donegal for the right to contest Division 2B next year.

Division 3B final

Longford (31st, 664) v. Warwickshire (33rd, 543)
Longford won the regular-stage match by five points at home, but the Brums were good winners in the other two games and will give this one a fair rattle. Ratoath will host this battle where the winner is guaranteed to replace Fermanagh in Division 3A. Longford get the nod by 63.6%.

We’re back after the weekend to chart the changes in the charts.

Kilkenny’s second successive narrow victory over Clare maintains their position at the top of the table, but the gap will almost certainly be surmounted if Tipperary continue their run of good form and end up claiming League honours.

The week’s biggest winners are Waterford, who were the only Division 1B side to make it out of the four quarter finals, disposing of a poor Galway side who slip down the rankings as a result. Waterford’s form will take the sternest test against Tipp next week – a game where, now that Waterford are so highly rated, a big win could make the Premier our new leaders.

The finals of the four lower League divisions take place on Saturday – we’ll be back later in the week to preview them.

After the relatively stake-less routine of the round-robin phase, now it’s time for business. Division 1 reaches its pivotal stages with the four quarter-finals, and relegation playoffs to decide who’ll be in Division 1B – and who’ll be in Division 2A – also take place.

Quarter-finals

Dublin (4th, 1905) v. Limerick (6th, 1886)
There’s no underestimating of the Croke Park Factor and the Dublin hurlers ought to take immense heart from the scheduling of their quarter-final as the curtain-raiser to the footballers’ clash with Derry. Although they were missing the spark of their opening fortnight, the metropolitans were assured in seeing off Galway to ensure home advantage by coming third in Division 1A, and the bump from Croke Park makes them 63.4% to make it to the semi-finals.

Tipperary (2nd, 2130) v. Offaly (10th, 1594)
With respect to Offaly, probably the biggest mismatch of the quarter-final phase. Tipperary get home venue after winning four on the bounce; Offaly were well beaten by Wexford and Waterford, and only get a 5.1% chance of passing the Thurles test.

Cork (3rd, 2008) v. Wexford (9th, 1706)
Again, a match where home advantage will make a huge difference. After their opening slips, Páirc Uí Rínn has become something of a fortress and there’ll be a big crowd there with this match following the football clash against Mayo. Cork get Elo’s nod by 86.4%.

 

Waterford (8th, 1838) v. Galway (5th, 1888)
One of the quirks of the league format is that, as a bonus for winning Division 1B, Waterford get home advantage against the team who came fourth in 1A. That could make all the difference between two sides who are broadly evenly matched in the Elo ratings. Had the game been on neutral ground, Galway would be 55.7% favourites to win; putting the game in Waterford means the margin is the other way around.

Division 1A relegation playoff

Kilkenny (1st, 2169) v. Clare (7th, 1850)
Well now. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, and nobody expects the Cody Relegation. Especially Doctor Elo, who says the Cats are 87.3% likely to repeat last week’s narrow victory. If they lose – which should be made less likely by the return of the Ballyhale contingent – and Tipperary beat Offaly as expected, the Cats will slip off the top of our ratings system.

Division 1B relegation playoff

Laois (11th, 1456) v. Antrim (13th, 1380)
For those not involved in the quarter-finals, the playoffs are serious business – especially when in the B tier. The losers of this game will face off against Westmeath or Kerry for the right to play in Division 1 next year, and Division 2 is a far less glamorous place. Laois were four-point winners when the sides met in Armoy earlier this year, and are 69.2%-favoured to avoid the crunch playoff.

Division 2B relegation playoff

Mayo (25th, 916) v. Donegal (26th, 880)
Another game of similar stakes. The loser will face off against either Tyrone or Monaghan – both of whom have shown they’re capable of pulling out a big performance when circumstances demand one. In an anomalous situation, though, the Division 1B playoff is held on home ground, but the Division 2B one is on neutral territory. This one is in Carrick-on-Shannon and the neutral ground means Mayo get just a 54.1% advantage.

Division 3B

Longford (30th, 654) v. Sligo (33rd, 330)
The last of the round-robin games in the Leagues this season, and a dead rubber to boot. Even if Longford lose they remain on four points and will meet Warwickshire in the final; this is Sligo’s last league outing and they’ll want to avoid finishing the campaign with three defeats. Longford are 87.6% to prevail.

We’re back after the weekend’s fixtures to see how we’re doing.

If the Division 1A relegation playoff between Kilkenny and Clare is anything near as good as today’s regular-season clash, we’re in for a treat. Likewise, if Tipperary and Cork serve up another epic as great as today’s, the summer is looking very rosy.

Dublin’s victory over Galway ends the tit-for-tat battle for fourth spot, while Kerry rise one spot to 12th after a fine win over London. Armagh’s surprising destruction of Mayo in Division 2B sees them jump three places to 22nd.

And now, the end is near, and so we face the final clashes.

The Division 1A table is oddly poised – first plays second, third plays fourth, and fifth plays sixth. The top two also play off in Division 1B.

So, let’s get to it…

Division 1A

Kilkenny (1st, 2164) v. Clare (7th, 1855)
It’s unusual, but it’s true: Kilkenny, great team in history and reigning League champions, have lost three matches in a row and are now destined for a relegation play-off. A win for Kilkenny can only put them level on points with Dublin or Galway, both of whom have a better head-to-head record – so Kilkenny are in relegation territory whether they like it or not. Clare’s only hope is if they win and Galway beat Dublin. Elo says the Banner are only 13.2% likely to pull off their own side of the bargain.

Cork (3rd, 2030) v. Tipperary (2nd, 2108)
At the other end, of the table, second plays third in Páirc Uí Rinn. The home venue gives Cork an Elo top-up to give them a 52.5% nod but the chances are these sides will be facing each other again before the League is out. 0.525306793

Dublin (5th, 1883) v. Galway (4th, 1910)
A draw would see both sides qualify for the knockout stage; Dublin will be mindful of the circumstances surrounding Clare and be keen. The Dubs get the nod by 58.3%.

Division 1B

Antrim (12th, 1400) v. Offaly (10th, 1574)
Antrim have been trying to make a decent fist of things this year, but their hammering last weekend by Waterford makes it impossible to dodge a relegation playoff. Offaly are almost certainly set to qualify for the knockout stages but a win could see them facing the likes of Dublin or Galway instead of the likes of Cork and Tipp. Offaly are 58.4% to win.

Limerick (6th, 1882) v. Laois (11th, 1460)
In order to avoid relegation territory, Laois need not only to win, but also overturn a 21-point difference over Offaly, who would also need to totally collapse against Antrim in the game already mentioned. Limerick are 91.7% to render that issue moot.

Wexford (9th, 1735) v. Waterford (8th, 1809)
These two are already top of the table and guaranteed a future, so the winner will merely guarantee themselves a match against the ‘weakest’ survivor from Division 1A. Wexford are 53% to benefit from that.

Division 2A

Kerry (13th, 1396) v. London (20th, 1079)
Kerry’s win over Carlow last week cements their credentials as genuine Liam MacCarthy tier material and this week they’re 87.2% to tilt for a spot in the final.

Derry (19th, 1194) v. Wicklow (21st, 1042)
Wicklow have lost all four outings and aren’t likely to trouble Derry as they hunt for the top table, who get the nod by 76%. Derry are level on points with Kerry, on five, but also must overhaul a two-point difference to leapfrog the Kingdom into the top two.

Westmeath (15th, 1319) v. Carlow (14th, 1339)
A draw would effectively guarantee both of these sides a rematch in the Division 2A final, but Westmeath are 59.1% to win. Neither will settle for a draw as the loser ought to be overhauled by either Kerry or Derry.

Division 2B

Donegal (26th, 888) v. Kildare (16th, 1317)
Kildare have won their previous four outings and are guaranteed a final berth; Donegal would need to overcome a gargantuan points difference to escape a relegation playoff. Kildare are worthy of their 82% nod.

Mayo (22nd, 971) v. Armagh (25th, 903)
A decent win for Mayo would be enough to lift them out of the bottom two, but Armagh will have their eye on better things – a win today, and a decent win for Meath over Down, could see them make a final. Mayo get the nod, 68.4%.

Meath (18th, 1213) v. Down (17th, 1280)
Meath’s defeat to Armagh last week essentially seals their status in 2B and no higher, but mathematically it’s still possible to make it out. Beating Down would put both sides on six points, with Meath then ahead by virtue of head-to-head record. If Armagh join them on six, it goes down to points difference, which ought to see Down survive. A Meath-Mayo combination of wins would put the Royals in the final; they’re 53.8% favourites to pull it off.

Division 3A

Fermanagh (31st, 610) v. Monaghan (28th, 758)
Fermanagh have lost all four outings so far and Monaghan, who are chasing a spot in the final, should be better favoured than the 55.5% they get from Elo.

Fingal (27th, 803) v. Louth (29th, 693)
Neither team can make it to the final but the losers are guaranteed a spot in the relegation playoff. Fingal are 72% to avoid that outcome.

Tyrone (24th, 939) v. Roscommon (23rd, 942)
First plays third; Tyrone winning will put them top of the table at the end of the campaign, but a loss will see Roscommon (and probably Monaghan) make it to the decider instead. Tyrone are 61% favourites to make it.

Division 3B

Longford (30th, 654) v. Sligo (33rd, 330)
Longford have won both their outings thus far and are 87.5% to finish with a perfect hat-trick. Sligo have lost both and simply cannot qualify for the final.

Warwickshire (32nd, 536) v. Leitrim (34th, 288)
The winner is guaranteed a space in the final alongside Longford; a draw would suit Warwickshire’s better points difference. The reigning Lory Meagher champions are 83.3% likely to win another trip across the Irish Sea.

When was the last time Kilkenny lost three competitive hurling matches in a row? Suddenly the lack of a pre-season competition, and the absence of the Ballyhale contingent, looks like a huge handicap.

The Cats remain top of our rankings table, but Tipperary gain 37 ratings points at their expense, and the gap between the top two sides is down to 56 – meaning another loss for the Cats this weekend could see them fall off the top (aside from going into the relegation playoffs).

The rest of the table is fairly static this week; Dublin rise one place, despite losing in Clare, because Offaly managed to take victory from Limerick who lose a greater number of points as a result.