Author: Gavan Reilly

The Elo model has been able to tell for some time that the Kerry hurlers, and the way they went about their victories, were some distance better than the teams they hoped to kick out of Division 1.

With no offence intended towards Antrim, Saturday’s playoff showed exactly that. It was only a one-point game and Antrim will know that on other days they would have had their victory. But Kerry – the minnows of Munster hurling – have been plugging away for a long time. For those of us from lesser hurling counties, there is reason to dream. An Ríocht Abú.

The win cements Kerry’s spot in 12th in the Elo ratings (fittingly enough) while the victory sends Antrim down one spot, slipping behind Kildare.

Donegal and Tyrone played out an incredible draw at 4-13 apiece (lending further weight to this author’s opinion that the Ulster Hurling Championship, when played properly, is the most competitive senior GAA competition) and will have to meet again to decide who gets to play in Division 2B.

We’ll be back on Thursday with our preview of the NHL quarter-finals.

Kerry and Tyrone already have some hurling silverware in the bag for this season – but the hurling folk of those counties will know that the only real way to further the standard is to play more regularly against better teams.

That’s why they’ll likely have been staying sober for the last week – knowing that these promotion playoffs for a spot in Divisions 1B and 2B next year are perhaps a greater spoil than the silverware in the cabinet.

Division 1B promotion playoff

Antrim (13th, 1362) v. Kerry (12th, 1425)
As the photograph above will tell you, these sides don’t meet very often – in fact, the most recent photograph we could find is from the Division 2 final in Croke Park in 2003. Antrim won by six points then, but Dr Elo isn’t so optimistic this time. Antrim have lost all six outings so far in this League season; Kerry took seven points in the group stage before stunning Westmeath last week, and get a ratings boost as a result. This game being on neutral ground, Kerry get the nod to secure promotion by 57.2%.

Division 2B promotion playoff

Donegal (26th, 855) v. Tyrone (22nd, 972)
Donegal, losing all six of their games so far; Tyrone winning five and drawing the other. Dr Elo doesn’t see much reason for the form guide to be thrown out – and says Tyrone should win this clash, and a spot in Division 2B, with a likelihood of 63.2%.

We’ll be back after the weekend’s matches to update the charts, and to preview the Division 1 semi-finals.

Four pieces of lower-tier silverware awarded this Saturday – but for two of the winners the League season is not yet over.

Kerry only beat Westmeath by six points in the end, but led by 11 points at one stage early in the second half after a flurry of five goals. That wouldn’t necessarily have led them any higher in the table but it helps to bridge the gap – and should they win the playoff against Antrim next weekend (which Elo deems likely – but more anon) they’ll have rightfully earned their status in Division 1. As it stands, Kerry remain in 12th but Westmeath fall two slots to 16th on the back of the defeat.

Kildare, Tyrone and Warwickshire are the other winners of the weekend; Kildare rise one place but that’s partly because of Westmeath’s slide, though the new rating proves that the Lilywhites are worthy of Division 2A. Tyrone are the only others to gain any ground on the table, jumping over Armagh.

The finals of the four lower League divisions take place on Saturday – we’ll be back later in the week to preview them.

Getting a good run in the summer championships is generally the prime objective for an inter-county side, but for those on the lower tiers, promotion through the National Leagues is a seriously important goal.

The likes of Kerry and Westmeath have real ambitions to be among the higher tiers of hurling, while sides lower down the food chain like Meath and Kildare shelter pockets of diehard hurling folk whose standard of play would be hugely improved by continued exposure to those who simply play the game better.

Division 2A final

Westmeath (15th, 1336) v. Kerry (13th, 1404)
The winner of this match isn’t guaranteed promotion to Division 1 – they’ll still have to win a playoff against Antrim – but the winner of the playoff will by definition have a higher Elo rating than the men in Saffron. Kerry come in with a slightly higher rating – mostly because of the margin of victory in previous matches – but Westmeath were 15-point winners when the sides met in Tralee. This game takes place in Limerick and Kerry get the nod by 57.8%.

Division 2B final

Kildare (16th, 1325) v. Meath (19th, 1242)
Kildare manager Brian Lawlor lashed out this week at the bizarre promotion system within the Leagues – arguing that, having beaten all five sides in his division, his team should already be deemed ‘champions’ and promoted automatically anyway. He may have a point – the Six Nations has a comparable format but doesn’t have a one-off final where a Grand Slam side can still leave without silverware.

But at least the winners of Division 2B have the minor luxury of being promoted directly to 2A and not having to play a playoff first. And indeed, a cynic would argue that if a Grand Slam-winning side loses a final, and can’t win on the very day when it counts most, they perhaps shouldn’t be going up in the first place.

That said, this local grudge match – between two sides who have a habit of meeting at the business end of Keogh, League and Ring cups – is still likely to go Kildare’s way. Among their five wins is a 10-point defeat of Meath, and on neutral ground in Mullingar they’re 59.4% to make the leap.

Division 3A final

Tyrone (24th, 956) v. Monaghan (29th, 791)
Of the four games this weekend, this one could be the most clear cut, although the sides drew in the group stage and neither lost a single match throughout. Tyrone have accrued about 80 ratings points this season but Monaghan have taken twice as much and would probably get a better Elo standing if they weren’t coming from a low base. The sides meet in Keady, Armagh, where Tyrone get the nod by 68.1% and will go on to play Donegal for the right to contest Division 2B next year.

Division 3B final

Longford (31st, 664) v. Warwickshire (33rd, 543)
Longford won the regular-stage match by five points at home, but the Brums were good winners in the other two games and will give this one a fair rattle. Ratoath will host this battle where the winner is guaranteed to replace Fermanagh in Division 3A. Longford get the nod by 63.6%.

We’re back after the weekend to chart the changes in the charts.

Kilkenny’s second successive narrow victory over Clare maintains their position at the top of the table, but the gap will almost certainly be surmounted if Tipperary continue their run of good form and end up claiming League honours.

The week’s biggest winners are Waterford, who were the only Division 1B side to make it out of the four quarter finals, disposing of a poor Galway side who slip down the rankings as a result. Waterford’s form will take the sternest test against Tipp next week – a game where, now that Waterford are so highly rated, a big win could make the Premier our new leaders.

The finals of the four lower League divisions take place on Saturday – we’ll be back later in the week to preview them.