Author: Gavan Reilly

In the six years of results built into our mathematical model, the biggest ‘shock’ – where the winning side had the lowest expectation of coming out on top – was Longford’s win away in Derry in the qualifiers last year. Our model had given Longford just a 5.3% chance of winning in that game. If anyone had a track record of unlikely victories – in as much as anyone has a ‘track record’ – it’s Longford.

But while they had a 5.3% chance in Derry last year – meaning they would win the fixture one time in every 20 – in Croker their chances fell to just 1%. They had a one-in-100 chance of dismantling the Dublin juggernaut and it’s hardly any surprise

There is a certain amount of unnecessary hand-wringing about the increasing gulf in standard between football’s elite and its also-rans. The gulf in football has never been as big as it is in hurling, but nobody frets about it – it’s accepted that even among the 13 counties in the Liam MacCarthy Cup, only four or five have any reasonable prospect of looking to win the All-Ireland. Football needs to realise that there are no sporting competitions on earth in which everyone has a chance of winning outright.

Yes, the arbitrary provincial boundaries are a bother; had the draw been different, the reigning All-Ireland champions Kerry could have played their opening game against Waterford, the weakest side in the land. But those divisions are man-made and the GAA already knows they can be moved when convenience allows. The solutions for a restructured championship – the type where Longford can look forward to a decent day out without already stuffing their tails between their legs – are there if only there’s enough willpower to implement them.

All three of this weekend’s matches, on their face, seem like they ought to be pretty routine for the stronger sides – but if the Championship was won on paper, it’d be over long ago…

Leinster SFC

Dublin (1st, 1968) v. Longford (23rd, 1056) 
The top dogs of the province – and in our view, the country – get the ball rolling in front of a packed house at Headquarters against the surprise package from Division 4. That is, sadly, about as much as we can say. Elo gives Dublin a 99.0% chance of winning and it would be the shock to end all shocks if Longford rumbled the Leinster champions in Croker. Mind you, Longford beat Derry in the back door last year in a similarly-sized shock – and won’t be fazed by a big scoreline, after their comeback against Offaly. Winners play Laois or Kildare.

Ulster SFC

Fermanagh (18th, 1184) v. Antrim (27th, 917)
Antrim suffer the slight ignominy of being the weakest county in a province full of meaty muscular footballers and aren’t given much of a shout to get over this game. Fermanagh pushed Armagh all the way to the Division 3 final and will think their spring should put them in far better stead. They get the nod by 84.4% to progress to a semi-final against Monaghan.

Munster SFC

Tipperary (17th, 1241) v. Waterford (31st, 655)
Waterford are in a similar place to Fermanagh – there are a couple of big dogs in the region and Waterford simply don’t have any hope of rivalling them. Tipperary are a side on the up – and have been ever since John Evans was working his magic there – and Peter Creedon’s charges should be safe with a 95.9% expectation of success. The winners get to play Kerry. Joy of joys.

The big bang of Donegal and Tyrone’s clash last week is followed up this weekend by a few matches that ought to be a little more routine – but that’s not to say they’re without their potential banana skins…

Ulster SFC

Cavan (16th, 1285) v. Monaghan (6th, 1672)
Monaghan have the ‘easy’ half of the Ulster draw, with Donegal, Tyrone, Armagh, Derry and Down all on the other side. But nothing in GAA is worse than complacency, and a season-opening derby away in Breffni Park is the place where the could come a-cropper. Elo gives the hosts only a 21.1% chance of success but nobody should be all that surprised if Monaghan don’t quite have it all their own way.

Munster SFC

Clare (23rd, 1054) v. Limerick (24th, 1052)
The hurling meeting of the same two counties will undoubtedly capture the imagination more than this football clash – but for the football folk of these two counties, this one will be keenly awaited. The two sides are the most evenly-matched counties in the country according to the Elo model and only the home venue of Cusack Park (which doesn’t apply for the hurling) makes any difference in our model. Clare, accordingly, by 61.5%.

Connacht SFC

London (32nd, 574) v. Roscommon (11th, 1421)
Roscommon are on a flyer this year after their promotion to Division 1, and this match will put them into a semi-final against Sligo that they’ll be easily expected to win. First they have just to get over what ought to be a mundane trip to London, where the hosts have only a 3.1% chance of success. Enough said, really.

So it wasn’t a classic, but was it ever going to be? It was only the first day out for Donegal and Tyrone, and with both hoping for a long summer ahead – knowing that Ulster glory would require no fewer than four wins – there was never going to be quite as much bite as a match from later in the year. But that said, it was the physical, bruising opener that the Championship might have hoped for: a sign that school’s over and now it’s time for the big lads to take to the stage.

Donegal are up to 3rd on the back of their win over Tyrone, who remain in 7th; Galway’s win over Leitrim (their tenth in a row) also sees them rise two places, up to 12th. The biggest winners of the weekend, however, were Longford – whose comeback win over Offaly in Tullamore sees them rise four places to 22nd.

Incidentally, those two Ulster sides – the dastardly practitioners of negative, defensive football – in 70 rainsodden, soggy, angered minutes still managed to serve up 2-23 between them. Football’s not dead yet, folks.

…and if anyone ever needed a spark to get the championship going, a clash between two of the country’s finest sides in the first round of Ulster is definitely it.

Nine sides get their football championship campaigns underway this weekend, joined by Galway who have already blown off some cobwebs with a jaunt to New York.  Continue reading Football preview: Can’t start a fire without a spark