Author: Gavan Reilly

More often than not, Kilkenny win the Leinster championship. Just under half the time they do it, they end up winning the All-Ireland. Galway might have put up a show and given them sixty minutes of discomfort, but take the two magical goals out of the equation, either side of half-time, and the scoreline becomes 1-25 to 0-15. For the Cats, it’s Leinster title number 70.

Little surprise in the Round 1 qualifiers, with Clare demolishing Offaly, Cork putting enough daylight ahead of Wexford that a late rally didn’t scare them, Limerick disposing of Westmeath and Dublin doing just fine over Laois. Next week’s qualifiers will tell us more about the true state of the four victors – but just as quickly as those games come around, the summer will be over. Including the provincial final in Ulster, there are now just nine senior hurling matches left this year. (There are 23 in football.)

It’s getting to the time of year where we can soon dispense with the rankings from the lower rungs of the hurling table – true to form, the sides rated 9th, 10th, 12th and 13th were all defeated by sides rated 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th. The ratings contract but the only switch in rankings, after this weekend, is that Offaly’s hammering in Cusack Park sees them nudge below Kerry on the table.

Leinster SHC final

Kilkenny (1st, 2183) v. Galway (5th, 1933)
First to headquarters, where the reigning champions take on one of the two sides who pushed them to a replay in 2014. The strength of Kilkenny’s semi-final hammering of Wexford should give them some enthusiasm, but Galway could hardly have asked for a better run-in to this final – one game against Dublin to blow away the cobwebs before destroying them in the replay, and then an obliteration of Laois to make it to the decider. Kilkenny’s previous history gives them an Elo favourability of 76% but if Galway start early and get a couple of quick goals, who knows…

All-Ireland SHC qualifiers, round 1

Laois (12th, 1523) v. Dublin (6th, 1851)
The crowning achievement of a win over Offaly may be the extent of the Laois summer. Or it may not – after the defeat to Galway, Laois now get home venue against a Dublin side who were equally hammered by the Tribesmen, albeit after a replay. Dublin’s previous ventures, and status in Division 1A, suggests they should be safe enough. Elo gives them a 74.1% nod.

Clare (8th, 1815) v. Offaly (10th, 1550)
Clare haven’t had much fun since their 2013 All-Ireland success. A home draw against Offaly might give them a chance to work up a head of steam – especially as the fates have aligned to give Clare a double-header with the football too. Offaly, off the back of losing to Laois, are just 16% to avoid a double defeat and an early summer off.

Wexford (9th, 1712) v. Cork (4th, 1950)
The tie of the round – with Wexford Park quickly becoming a place that not many sides want to visit. Cork only have the Waterford defeat under their belts and nobody is quite sure what they’re made of yet – though they do, of course, have a League final in their recent past. Wexford, likewise, have only a win over Westmeath for form. This could be a damp squib, or a cracker – let’s hope for the latter. Cork get the nod, 65.4%.

Westmeath (13th, 1349) v. Limerick (7th, 1849)
Westmeath’s reward for making it through the group stage of the Leinster championship was a defeat by Wexford, but now another home tie – this time against Limerick, who put in a good day’s work in defeating Clare first time out. On that basis alone, their Elo probability of 84.3% seems justified.

Only the one hurling match last weekend but – as we promised – it was a good one between Down and Derry, with Down winning out 3-16 to 1-17 away to their Christy Ring finalist hosts. Down will return to the same venue in a fortnight for a chance at Antrim – with a genuine hope of breaking the Saffrons’ stranglehold on the Ulster title.

And we mean it. With their win, Down now overhaul their local rivals and should have a decent shot when the sides meet again on Saturday week.

Only the one match to preview this weekend: the semi-final in the largely forgotten-about Ulster Hurling Championship. But while few will look on, this – as many Ulster hurling matches are – is worth keeping a loose eye on.

The Ulster championship has been largely Antrim’s preserve in recent years, and based on recent history the Saffrons get a bye into the final this year. But with Antrim on the back of their poorest season in a long time – relegated to the Christy Ring Cup and Division 2A – Derry (18th, 1208) and Down (17th, 1262) will both think some silverware is there to be won.

Derry had a good Ring campaign, succumbing only to Kerry in the final, but it was that defeat alone which pushed them below Down in our rankings. The sides are near-equals and Derry get the nod from Elo – 55.3% – solely because they get to host this match in Owenbeg.

Antrim are only 16th (1279) in the rankings and the side who wins this semi-final will be their equal for the decider a week later. In a weekend where there’s no other small-ball action, the meeting of Down and Derry will be one to watch.

Those of the footballing persuasion will by now be bored to death by perpetual discussions of needing to re-tier the All-Ireland Championships. ‘Something simply must be done,’ some will shriek, ‘so that Longford don’t have to get a demoralising 25-point defeat to Dublin every year.’ To be fair, this writer is often among them.

Perhaps the Leinster semi-finals may be food for thought that way. Hurling is often looked to as the role model for a tiered Championship to stop annual batterings, but the combined margin of victory in the two Leinster hurling semi-finals was 44 points. One of the two Munster semi-finals was won by 16. Perhaps it’s best just to acknowledge that no matter how the Championship is structured, there will always be brilliant teams who can destroy the mere mortals.

At this early stage in the season it certainly seems as if the four teams making it to the provincial finals are the ones with the best chance of silverware. Galway now seem to have found their footing, Waterford have two cups under their belts and are yet to be beaten this year in any competition, while Kilkenny and Tipperary proved this weekend why they make it to so many All-Ireland finals: on a good day they’re close to unstoppable.

Their wins put them further clear of the chasing back, while Limerick’s defeat at home sees them seep one spot to 7th. Laois, likewise, slide one spot to 12th thanks to their heavy defeat.

There was a narrative in last week’s football championship that a good team simply gets less good by not playing for a while. Kerry, Mayo and Cork were all supposed to get weaker simply for the lack of Championship exercise. How’d all that work out? All three won, fairly easily.

Perhaps there’s a similar logic to be expressed in the hurling championship, as last year’s All-Ireland finalists make their 2015 debuts. Kilkenny and Tipperary might not have forgotten how to win, but their opponents might at least hope they’re a little bit ring-rusty.

Munster SHC semi-final

Limerick (6th, 1890) v. Tipperary (2nd, 2101)
We start in the Gaelic Grounds where Limerick, having overcome Clare, get home advantage for the visit of last year’s national runners-up. That day out may suit Limerick and help to blow off some cobwebs – it’s now almost three months since Tipperary’s last outing – but there’s also the converse logic that a side drawn into a Munster quarter-final also runs itself too ragged by the time it makes it to the provincial final. Tipperary, based purely on their previous calibre, are 62.5% favourites.

Leinster SHC semi-finals

Kilkenny (1st, 2174) v. Wexford (9th, 1721)
Wexford might have preferred to get this one played elsewhere. Thus far their only outing was against Westmeath, and their reward is a visit to the home of the All-Ireland champions. (The two sides last met in Leinster four years ago, in Wexford Park: Kilkenny were due a return.) Kilkenny have lost some of their previous warriors, but of all their retirees, only one was considered ‘good’ enough to play in last year’s All-Ireland replay. The Cats get the nod by 92.7%.

Galway (5th, 1921) v. Laois (11th, 1535)
It’s a similarly one-sided affair on the cards in Tullamore – Galway’s de-facto home venue in Leinster – who face Laois. The Midlanders escaped the round-robin phase before disposing of Offaly, so this would be their fifth outing of the summer, while Galway are already on their third. But one would be fanciful to think Galway could collapse as easily as the Faithful did on Laois’s last day out. Elo says Galway by 90.4%.

Ulster SHC quarter-finals

Derry (18th, 1202) v. Donegal (25th, 900)
You won’t hear much about it this weekend – or, frankly, ever – but the Ulster hurling championship is quite possibly the most entertaining of any of the provincial pots. True, the standard might not be awesome, but there’s energy and pride in the performances – and the scorelines usually reflect a keenly-contested competition, even if Antrim almost always win it.

The Saffrons are given an automatic spot in final this year, with four other teams playing off for the right to meet them. Derry were defeated finalists in the Christy Ring Cup and should have no bother disposing of their neighbours in Celtic Park. Elo says Derry by 86.4%.

Armagh (23rd, 1007) v. Down (17th, 1243)
A slightly more even contest could be offered in the Athletic Grounds, but onetime Christy Ring contenders Down ought to have enough firepower to dispose of the Nicky Rackard runners-up. Elo agrees, favouring Armagh by 65.2%.