Category: Football

In the six years of results built into our mathematical model, the biggest ‘shock’ – where the winning side had the lowest expectation of coming out on top – was Longford’s win away in Derry in the qualifiers last year. Our model had given Longford just a 5.3% chance of winning in that game. If anyone had a track record of unlikely victories – in as much as anyone has a ‘track record’ – it’s Longford.

But while they had a 5.3% chance in Derry last year – meaning they would win the fixture one time in every 20 – in Croker their chances fell to just 1%. They had a one-in-100 chance of dismantling the Dublin juggernaut and it’s hardly any surprise

There is a certain amount of unnecessary hand-wringing about the increasing gulf in standard between football’s elite and its also-rans. The gulf in football has never been as big as it is in hurling, but nobody frets about it – it’s accepted that even among the 13 counties in the Liam MacCarthy Cup, only four or five have any reasonable prospect of looking to win the All-Ireland. Football needs to realise that there are no sporting competitions on earth in which everyone has a chance of winning outright.

Yes, the arbitrary provincial boundaries are a bother; had the draw been different, the reigning All-Ireland champions Kerry could have played their opening game against Waterford, the weakest side in the land. But those divisions are man-made and the GAA already knows they can be moved when convenience allows. The solutions for a restructured championship – the type where Longford can look forward to a decent day out without already stuffing their tails between their legs – are there if only there’s enough willpower to implement them.

All three of this weekend’s matches, on their face, seem like they ought to be pretty routine for the stronger sides – but if the Championship was won on paper, it’d be over long ago…

Leinster SFC

Dublin (1st, 1968) v. Longford (23rd, 1056) 
The top dogs of the province – and in our view, the country – get the ball rolling in front of a packed house at Headquarters against the surprise package from Division 4. That is, sadly, about as much as we can say. Elo gives Dublin a 99.0% chance of winning and it would be the shock to end all shocks if Longford rumbled the Leinster champions in Croker. Mind you, Longford beat Derry in the back door last year in a similarly-sized shock – and won’t be fazed by a big scoreline, after their comeback against Offaly. Winners play Laois or Kildare.

Ulster SFC

Fermanagh (18th, 1184) v. Antrim (27th, 917)
Antrim suffer the slight ignominy of being the weakest county in a province full of meaty muscular footballers and aren’t given much of a shout to get over this game. Fermanagh pushed Armagh all the way to the Division 3 final and will think their spring should put them in far better stead. They get the nod by 84.4% to progress to a semi-final against Monaghan.

Munster SFC

Tipperary (17th, 1241) v. Waterford (31st, 655)
Waterford are in a similar place to Fermanagh – there are a couple of big dogs in the region and Waterford simply don’t have any hope of rivalling them. Tipperary are a side on the up – and have been ever since John Evans was working his magic there – and Peter Creedon’s charges should be safe with a 95.9% expectation of success. The winners get to play Kerry. Joy of joys.

The big bang of Donegal and Tyrone’s clash last week is followed up this weekend by a few matches that ought to be a little more routine – but that’s not to say they’re without their potential banana skins…

Ulster SFC

Cavan (16th, 1285) v. Monaghan (6th, 1672)
Monaghan have the ‘easy’ half of the Ulster draw, with Donegal, Tyrone, Armagh, Derry and Down all on the other side. But nothing in GAA is worse than complacency, and a season-opening derby away in Breffni Park is the place where the could come a-cropper. Elo gives the hosts only a 21.1% chance of success but nobody should be all that surprised if Monaghan don’t quite have it all their own way.

Munster SFC

Clare (23rd, 1054) v. Limerick (24th, 1052)
The hurling meeting of the same two counties will undoubtedly capture the imagination more than this football clash – but for the football folk of these two counties, this one will be keenly awaited. The two sides are the most evenly-matched counties in the country according to the Elo model and only the home venue of Cusack Park (which doesn’t apply for the hurling) makes any difference in our model. Clare, accordingly, by 61.5%.

Connacht SFC

London (32nd, 574) v. Roscommon (11th, 1421)
Roscommon are on a flyer this year after their promotion to Division 1, and this match will put them into a semi-final against Sligo that they’ll be easily expected to win. First they have just to get over what ought to be a mundane trip to London, where the hosts have only a 3.1% chance of success. Enough said, really.

So it wasn’t a classic, but was it ever going to be? It was only the first day out for Donegal and Tyrone, and with both hoping for a long summer ahead – knowing that Ulster glory would require no fewer than four wins – there was never going to be quite as much bite as a match from later in the year. But that said, it was the physical, bruising opener that the Championship might have hoped for: a sign that school’s over and now it’s time for the big lads to take to the stage.

Donegal are up to 3rd on the back of their win over Tyrone, who remain in 7th; Galway’s win over Leitrim (their tenth in a row) also sees them rise two places, up to 12th. The biggest winners of the weekend, however, were Longford – whose comeback win over Offaly in Tullamore sees them rise four places to 22nd.

Incidentally, those two Ulster sides – the dastardly practitioners of negative, defensive football – in 70 rainsodden, soggy, angered minutes still managed to serve up 2-23 between them. Football’s not dead yet, folks.

…and if anyone ever needed a spark to get the championship going, a clash between two of the country’s finest sides in the first round of Ulster is definitely it.

Nine sides get their football championship campaigns underway this weekend, joined by Galway who have already blown off some cobwebs with a jaunt to New York.  Continue reading Football preview: Can’t start a fire without a spark

It finishes with fireworks, it arrives with barely a bang. As with last year, Galway took their time to get going, but ultimately prevailed with a 2-18 to 0-8 win over New York in the Bronx. The result means Galway gain just 2 Elo points and remain in 14th place. They’ll face Leitrim (28th) in a fortnight.

It will end with razzmatazz, glamour, confetti and epic montages – with talk of young men becoming immortal legends and the inspiration for generations to come.

But it always starts with barely a whisper – and perhaps, in a way, that’s part of the beauty of the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship: it literally starts off-Broadway.

There is little point in trying to offer a model for the likelihood of New York pulling off a major shock – easy as it would be to point back to the scare Galway got out in the Bronx five years ago. Elo, even with New York having home advantage, gives Galway a 98.5% chance of winning. There won’t be another game this year where the odds are so heavily stacked against any team.

But that’s not really the point of the now-traditional opening fixture in New York. It’s a lesson that before the finale comes the hard slog – and that in the Football Championship, before 32 teams pack up unhappy for the summer, everyone gets an entry pass.

All we can say is: good luck to both teams, and let the games begin.

Another April in Croke Park, another year for the New Ireland Cup to remain in situ in the capital. Dublin turned their stutter into swagger – as did Offaly on Saturday night – while Roscommon and Armagh put the finishing touches to a positive Spring. They’ll be hoping their silverware will be the gateway to an enterprising Summer and potentially some football in Autumn.

Cork’s defeat means they slide just behind Mayo on the rankings, while Roscommon take Down’s spot in 11th by defeating the Mournemen. Longford slide two places with their somewhat unexpected loss in the Division 4 final, with their victors Offaly rising one spot in their place.

Football’s taking a breather for a couple of weeks but there’s one competitive match next weekend – we’ll be back to preview it on Thursday.

Trophies, trophies everywhere… It’s the final weekend of the National Football Leagues, with silverware on offer for every winner and a couple of occasional sub-plots to dwell over too.

Division 1 final

Dublin (1st, 1951) v. Cork (5th, 1788)
Sunday’s flagship tussle pits the country’s strongest side against the one in the best form. The Dubs are beginning to flex their muscles and had a useful warm-up in a draw against Galway last weekend, mostly notable because it marked Alan Brogan’s return to the blue jersey. But if going on short-term form, you’d find it tough to look past the Corkonians – especially as they started their league campaign with a banging defeat of the Dubs by two points in Páirc Uí Rínn.

But this is a final, on territory the Dubliners are more than familiar with. They take an Elo bump from playing at home and should be 77% likely to emerge on top.

Division 2 final

Down (11th, 1422) v. Roscommon (13th, 1389)
The curtain-raiser on Sunday may be the best game of the four this weekend. Division 2 was wide open and Meath, Cavan and even Galway can feel a little aggrieved that results went against them and denied them a spot in the final. For the teams that made it, it’s already a good year: both counties will be delighted to look forward to top-flight football for 2016, and a Championship campaign where they can cement themselves as among the top teams in their provence – especially for Roscommon who now comprehensively outrank Galway as the second team in Connacht.

The Rossies won by four points when the sides met in Páirc Esler earlier in the year, but the Elo model reckons that Down – by virtue of winning the division – are the ones more likely to prevail. They’re only 53.9% favourites, though, and John Evans’ men will fancy their chances to take the trophy west of the Shannon.

Division 3 final

Armagh (10th, 1432) v. Fermanagh (18th, 1201)
Regular readers – all three of you – will by now be bored of the point being made that Armagh are far too good for Division 3 and that their Elo rating proves that they ought to be ranked far higher. Having qualified for the final without a defeat they were happy to slump to a final-day loss with a second-string outfit.

The only thing is… so were Fermanagh. They also went undefeated to qualify for the final, and only lost on the last day with a second-string team. And when the sides met in Armagh, the game finished level.

Elo says Armagh’s Championship pedigree makes them 74.3% favourites but this is the sort of game that will either be won based on form or class. We’d be amazed if the bookies priced Fermanagh as badly as their 25.7% Elo rating would suggest.

Division 4 final

Longford (24th, 1053) v. Offaly (26th, 963)
It might only the Division 4 final, and both counties will be hoping to make more of an impact on Division 3 next time, but there’s still some extra spice to this Saturday teatime clash at Headquarters.

The two sides are due to meet again in just three weeks in the first round of the Leinster Championship – and so while of course both would be happy to bring home some silverware, the sides could also be keen to learn more about the other – or, alternatively, to play against form and try to plant some false impressions. But, that said, the two sides did meet only three weeks ago with Longford emerging on top… they’ll be sick of each other by the time they meet in Tullamore on May 16th.

Longford’s superior record in the group stage means they get Elo’s nod by 60%.

There was never any way that Monaghan were going to collapse to Dublin, in Croke Park, the same way that they had the previous week in Clones. Their gritty display is not the culmination they may have hoped for, but it’s a good spring’s work and augers well for another tilt at the Anglo-Celt Cup in months to come.

Cork – easily the form team in the round-robin stage – disposed of Donegal with awesome goalscoring power and will be well up for a challenge.

No preview this weekend – we’re back on Thursday week to preview the four NFL finals.