Author: Gavan Reilly

After the relatively stake-less routine of the round-robin phase, now it’s time for business. Division 1 reaches its pivotal stages with the four quarter-finals, and relegation playoffs to decide who’ll be in Division 1B – and who’ll be in Division 2A – also take place.

Quarter-finals

Dublin (4th, 1905) v. Limerick (6th, 1886)
There’s no underestimating of the Croke Park Factor and the Dublin hurlers ought to take immense heart from the scheduling of their quarter-final as the curtain-raiser to the footballers’ clash with Derry. Although they were missing the spark of their opening fortnight, the metropolitans were assured in seeing off Galway to ensure home advantage by coming third in Division 1A, and the bump from Croke Park makes them 63.4% to make it to the semi-finals.

Tipperary (2nd, 2130) v. Offaly (10th, 1594)
With respect to Offaly, probably the biggest mismatch of the quarter-final phase. Tipperary get home venue after winning four on the bounce; Offaly were well beaten by Wexford and Waterford, and only get a 5.1% chance of passing the Thurles test.

Cork (3rd, 2008) v. Wexford (9th, 1706)
Again, a match where home advantage will make a huge difference. After their opening slips, Páirc Uí Rínn has become something of a fortress and there’ll be a big crowd there with this match following the football clash against Mayo. Cork get Elo’s nod by 86.4%.

 

Waterford (8th, 1838) v. Galway (5th, 1888)
One of the quirks of the league format is that, as a bonus for winning Division 1B, Waterford get home advantage against the team who came fourth in 1A. That could make all the difference between two sides who are broadly evenly matched in the Elo ratings. Had the game been on neutral ground, Galway would be 55.7% favourites to win; putting the game in Waterford means the margin is the other way around.

Division 1A relegation playoff

Kilkenny (1st, 2169) v. Clare (7th, 1850)
Well now. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, and nobody expects the Cody Relegation. Especially Doctor Elo, who says the Cats are 87.3% likely to repeat last week’s narrow victory. If they lose – which should be made less likely by the return of the Ballyhale contingent – and Tipperary beat Offaly as expected, the Cats will slip off the top of our ratings system.

Division 1B relegation playoff

Laois (11th, 1456) v. Antrim (13th, 1380)
For those not involved in the quarter-finals, the playoffs are serious business – especially when in the B tier. The losers of this game will face off against Westmeath or Kerry for the right to play in Division 1 next year, and Division 2 is a far less glamorous place. Laois were four-point winners when the sides met in Armoy earlier this year, and are 69.2%-favoured to avoid the crunch playoff.

Division 2B relegation playoff

Mayo (25th, 916) v. Donegal (26th, 880)
Another game of similar stakes. The loser will face off against either Tyrone or Monaghan – both of whom have shown they’re capable of pulling out a big performance when circumstances demand one. In an anomalous situation, though, the Division 1B playoff is held on home ground, but the Division 2B one is on neutral territory. This one is in Carrick-on-Shannon and the neutral ground means Mayo get just a 54.1% advantage.

Division 3B

Longford (30th, 654) v. Sligo (33rd, 330)
The last of the round-robin games in the Leagues this season, and a dead rubber to boot. Even if Longford lose they remain on four points and will meet Warwickshire in the final; this is Sligo’s last league outing and they’ll want to avoid finishing the campaign with three defeats. Longford are 87.6% to prevail.

We’re back after the weekend’s fixtures to see how we’re doing.

If the Division 1A relegation playoff between Kilkenny and Clare is anything near as good as today’s regular-season clash, we’re in for a treat. Likewise, if Tipperary and Cork serve up another epic as great as today’s, the summer is looking very rosy.

Dublin’s victory over Galway ends the tit-for-tat battle for fourth spot, while Kerry rise one spot to 12th after a fine win over London. Armagh’s surprising destruction of Mayo in Division 2B sees them jump three places to 22nd.

And now, the end is near, and so we face the final clashes.

The Division 1A table is oddly poised – first plays second, third plays fourth, and fifth plays sixth. The top two also play off in Division 1B.

So, let’s get to it…

Division 1A

Kilkenny (1st, 2164) v. Clare (7th, 1855)
It’s unusual, but it’s true: Kilkenny, great team in history and reigning League champions, have lost three matches in a row and are now destined for a relegation play-off. A win for Kilkenny can only put them level on points with Dublin or Galway, both of whom have a better head-to-head record – so Kilkenny are in relegation territory whether they like it or not. Clare’s only hope is if they win and Galway beat Dublin. Elo says the Banner are only 13.2% likely to pull off their own side of the bargain.

Cork (3rd, 2030) v. Tipperary (2nd, 2108)
At the other end, of the table, second plays third in Páirc Uí Rinn. The home venue gives Cork an Elo top-up to give them a 52.5% nod but the chances are these sides will be facing each other again before the League is out. 0.525306793

Dublin (5th, 1883) v. Galway (4th, 1910)
A draw would see both sides qualify for the knockout stage; Dublin will be mindful of the circumstances surrounding Clare and be keen. The Dubs get the nod by 58.3%.

Division 1B

Antrim (12th, 1400) v. Offaly (10th, 1574)
Antrim have been trying to make a decent fist of things this year, but their hammering last weekend by Waterford makes it impossible to dodge a relegation playoff. Offaly are almost certainly set to qualify for the knockout stages but a win could see them facing the likes of Dublin or Galway instead of the likes of Cork and Tipp. Offaly are 58.4% to win.

Limerick (6th, 1882) v. Laois (11th, 1460)
In order to avoid relegation territory, Laois need not only to win, but also overturn a 21-point difference over Offaly, who would also need to totally collapse against Antrim in the game already mentioned. Limerick are 91.7% to render that issue moot.

Wexford (9th, 1735) v. Waterford (8th, 1809)
These two are already top of the table and guaranteed a future, so the winner will merely guarantee themselves a match against the ‘weakest’ survivor from Division 1A. Wexford are 53% to benefit from that.

Division 2A

Kerry (13th, 1396) v. London (20th, 1079)
Kerry’s win over Carlow last week cements their credentials as genuine Liam MacCarthy tier material and this week they’re 87.2% to tilt for a spot in the final.

Derry (19th, 1194) v. Wicklow (21st, 1042)
Wicklow have lost all four outings and aren’t likely to trouble Derry as they hunt for the top table, who get the nod by 76%. Derry are level on points with Kerry, on five, but also must overhaul a two-point difference to leapfrog the Kingdom into the top two.

Westmeath (15th, 1319) v. Carlow (14th, 1339)
A draw would effectively guarantee both of these sides a rematch in the Division 2A final, but Westmeath are 59.1% to win. Neither will settle for a draw as the loser ought to be overhauled by either Kerry or Derry.

Division 2B

Donegal (26th, 888) v. Kildare (16th, 1317)
Kildare have won their previous four outings and are guaranteed a final berth; Donegal would need to overcome a gargantuan points difference to escape a relegation playoff. Kildare are worthy of their 82% nod.

Mayo (22nd, 971) v. Armagh (25th, 903)
A decent win for Mayo would be enough to lift them out of the bottom two, but Armagh will have their eye on better things – a win today, and a decent win for Meath over Down, could see them make a final. Mayo get the nod, 68.4%.

Meath (18th, 1213) v. Down (17th, 1280)
Meath’s defeat to Armagh last week essentially seals their status in 2B and no higher, but mathematically it’s still possible to make it out. Beating Down would put both sides on six points, with Meath then ahead by virtue of head-to-head record. If Armagh join them on six, it goes down to points difference, which ought to see Down survive. A Meath-Mayo combination of wins would put the Royals in the final; they’re 53.8% favourites to pull it off.

Division 3A

Fermanagh (31st, 610) v. Monaghan (28th, 758)
Fermanagh have lost all four outings so far and Monaghan, who are chasing a spot in the final, should be better favoured than the 55.5% they get from Elo.

Fingal (27th, 803) v. Louth (29th, 693)
Neither team can make it to the final but the losers are guaranteed a spot in the relegation playoff. Fingal are 72% to avoid that outcome.

Tyrone (24th, 939) v. Roscommon (23rd, 942)
First plays third; Tyrone winning will put them top of the table at the end of the campaign, but a loss will see Roscommon (and probably Monaghan) make it to the decider instead. Tyrone are 61% favourites to make it.

Division 3B

Longford (30th, 654) v. Sligo (33rd, 330)
Longford have won both their outings thus far and are 87.5% to finish with a perfect hat-trick. Sligo have lost both and simply cannot qualify for the final.

Warwickshire (32nd, 536) v. Leitrim (34th, 288)
The winner is guaranteed a space in the final alongside Longford; a draw would suit Warwickshire’s better points difference. The reigning Lory Meagher champions are 83.3% likely to win another trip across the Irish Sea.

When was the last time Kilkenny lost three competitive hurling matches in a row? Suddenly the lack of a pre-season competition, and the absence of the Ballyhale contingent, looks like a huge handicap.

The Cats remain top of our rankings table, but Tipperary gain 37 ratings points at their expense, and the gap between the top two sides is down to 56 – meaning another loss for the Cats this weekend could see them fall off the top (aside from going into the relegation playoffs).

The rest of the table is fairly static this week; Dublin rise one place, despite losing in Clare, because Offaly managed to take victory from Limerick who lose a greater number of points as a result.

It’s a toss-up. Literally. The three matches in Division 1A are all between evenly-matched teams and it could be a cracker of a weekend.

The close margin between the teams, by the way, means that any victory will do wonders for that team’s Elo rating – and would be very likely to see some movement at the higher end of the table before Sunday is out.

Division 1A

Tipperary (2nd, 2071) v. Kilkenny (1st, 2201)
Kilkenny don’t really do wobbles – and it’s still not fair to appraise them when the absent Ballyhale contingent could easily supply all six of the forwards – but by their own standards, Kilkenny are wobbling a bit. Two losses in a row, to Dublin and Galway, will not be fatal to their League ambitions – in fact, they lost two of the five last year as well – but falling three times in a row, and in Semple Stadium, would be unsettling for the avid Cats. Tipp ought to feel they have a shot at this one, and the model gives them a 46.5% chance of getting a result. The two national finals between these sides last year ended in draws – could Sunday be another?

Clare (7th, 1835) v. Dublin (6th, 1903)
Dublin’s bright start to the year came to a surprisingly sudden end against Cork last week. Clare, meanwhile, have lost three from three and urgently need a win to avoid the threat of relegation. Again, the Elo model makes it a tight one – Clare are favoured but only by 53.7% and another tight game could be in the offing if Ger Cunningham’s charges remain as flat as they were in Croke Park last week.

Galway (4th, 1934) v. Cork (3rd, 2006)
The two middlingest teams in Division 1 come head to head in Salthill, both on the back of morale-boosting wins last week. Again, the Elo model doesn’t give much between them – in fact, just like the other two games, the Elo model only tips the favourite by a 53% margin. Cork’s more recent form ought to assure them but having disposed of Kilkenny last week, Galway will want to make Salthill an even happier hunting ground.

Division 1B

Limerick (5th, 1923) v. Offaly (10th, 1533)
Limerick’s Elo rating was nicely boosted by their run to the All-Ireland semi-finals last year and their performances recently have been enough to keep them there. Offaly have misfired against the likes of Laois and Antrim and would be expected to come a-cropper on Shannonside, where the hosts get Elo’s nod by 90.5%.

Waterford (8th, 1802) v. Antrim (12th, 1407)
Antrim have been brave this season and have been keen to dismiss their image as being merely one of the also-rans in Leinster. Waterford, however, have come out on the right end of a couple of thrillers and will fancy their changes in this one. Again, Elo backs them by 90.7%.

Laois (11th, 1481) v. Wexford (9th, 1714)
Anyone follow Laois games via Twitter will by now be frustrated by the habit of the O’Moore men to remain competitive in matches for anywhere between 25 and 45 minutes, only for the rival county to pull clear comprehensively by the end. Getting Wexford at home may, perhaps, offer their best chance of breaking this habit. Elo makes Wexford the 64.9% favourites but perhaps Laois may feel 35.1% is a decent base on which to build.

Division 2A

Westmeath (16th, 1309) v. Wicklow (21st, 1052)
Wicklow haven’t been up to very much so far in the division and would be generally expected to be rivalling London when it comes to relegation contenders. London got their game against Derry out of a way a fortnight ago, with the bonus of a victory, so Wicklow will urgently need to get something out of this. That said, Westmeath have been in decent form and the 83.8% nod from Elo is not unfair.

Carlow (14th, 1364) v. Kerry (13th, 1371)
Possibly the closest game of the weekend in the lower tiers of the League. The benefit of home venue is all that gives Carlow their nod in this one – the winner of this will fancy themselves to be challenging for promotion. Getting to host the game makes Carlow the favourites by 60.5%.

Division 2B

Kildare (15th, 1309) v. Mayo (22nd, 979)
Kildare surprisingly lost late to Down in a thriller last weekend – just as they did in the football, coincidentally enough – in a result that threw Division 2B wide open. That said, they’re still top of the table and Mayo haven’t exactly been steamrolling over their opposition in recent weeks. Elo says Kildare should win it with an 87.8% probability.

Down (17th, 1272) v. Donegal (25th, 896)
Down got a nice fillup from that late win last week against Kildare and now find themselves at home against one of the division’s weaker sides. Elo makes Down a bang-on 90% chance of winning it and that seems justified.

Meath (18th, 1253) v. Armagh (26th, 863)
Another fairly clear-cut projection from Elo this time – Meath collapsed against Kildare on their opening day but have won well in the subsequent two games, and another two points here would keep them in contention to make the final on the final day. Elo gives them a 90.5% nod and given recent history between the two sides, a Royal defeat at home would be a grave blow.

Division 3A

Tyrone (24th, 926) v. Louth (29th, 706)
Tyrone are one of those teams who have got into the habit of winning. This weekend they find themselves at home against a Louth team who are still trying to feel their way into the season, and Elo’s 81.3% tip for the home side is a fair shout.

Monaghan (28th, 715) v. Fingal (27th, 846)
There’s only one space between these two on the ratings table but Fingal are growing in stature and the actual ranking gap between the two is quite stark. It’s only the home venue that gives Monaghan a reasonable shout, under the Elo model – but Fingal are given the narrow tip by 53.6%.

Roscommon (23rd, 931) v. Fermanagh (31st, 621)
The strongest team in the division against the weakest one. Simple as. Roscommon to win by 86.8% and anything else would be a huge shock.

Division 3B

Sligo (33rd, 362) v. Leitrim (34th, 256)
Elo makes these sides the two weakest in the country, but that’s not to say that a local derby between them can’t be any good. In fact, it’s often games of this calibre that throw up the high scorelines that make hurling matches so enthralling to neutrals. Sligo get the nod by 72% but the ratings at the lower end of the scale need a pinch of salt, given how these sides get fewer games to play.

Longford (30th, 639) v. Warwickshire (32nd, 551)
The Brums head to Longford in the last game of the weekend, with the hosts getting a 70.4% chance of success – but again, with games so infrequent for these sides, take these with a pinch of salt.

We’ll be back after the weekend with the latest Elo ratings – tweet us in the meantime at @GAArankings.

Mayo (2nd, 1857) v. Dublin (3rd, 1850) 0.620754803
Kerry (1st, 1894) v. Donegal (4th, 1781) 0.727287007
Monaghan (6th, 1644) v. Derry (9th, 1458) 0.788695263
Tyrone (7th, 1639) v. Cork (5th, 1771) 0.463225166
Meath (10th, 1440) v. Laois (15th, 1293) 0.757216119
Galway (13th, 1397) v. Cavan (17th, 1234) 0.770504091
Westmeath (19th, 1175) v. Down (12th, 1427) 0.331815361
Kildare (11th, 1437) v. Roscommon (14th, 1342) 0.710540012
Clare (22nd, 1080) v. Armagh (8th, 1488) 0.194913726
Fermanagh (18th, 1178) v. Limerick (25th, 985) 0.794017594
Louth (20th, 1154) v. Tipperary (16th, 1243) 0.512661511
Sligo (24th, 1048) v. Wexford (21st, 1085) 0.572026911
Offaly (26th, 939) v. Carlow (30th, 706) 0.822520993
Wicklow (28th, 849) v. Longford (23rd, 1066) 0.368465634
Waterford (31st, 689) v. Antrim (27th, 913) 0.360996631
Leitrim (29th, 827) v. London (32nd, 540) 0.855968415

So – the first time this year that all 34 sides have been in action, and yet the top of our Elo rankings table is… virtually static. Galway’s two-spot leap, and Dublin’s corresponding drop, are the only changes in the top 15.

Kilkenny’s lead is still a big one, and it would take a dramatic string of results for Tipperary to look like bridging the gap, but below them the table is beginning to tighten. Galway’s home win over the Cats sees them jump to fourth; Limerick’s thrilling win over Wexford was by such a narrow margin that they remain in fifth, while Dublin’s catastrophic collapse at home to Cork sends them down to sixth from whence Galway came.

We’re back again later in the week to preview this weekend’s games in the National Hurling League.