Category: Football

After the journey, comes the arrival. The four teams contesting this Sunday’s Allianz Football League semi-finals are not the four best in the country, but the participants have earned their spurs after some tricky journeys around the country, and after entertaining some difficult visitors at home.

Kerry, the reigning all-Ireland champions and 2nd-ranked Elo team, are not participants. Nor are Mayo, fourth in the ratings, because they only got a draw with Donegal last Sunday in the last round of group games. But the four teams taking part all deserve to be there – and it promising to be a fascinating double-header at Headquarters.

Division 1 semi-finals

Dublin (1st, 1943) v. Monaghan (6th, 1680)
Poor auld Monaghan. Having lost their last group outing to Dublin by 11 points, at home, the Farney Army now need to head to Croke Park to play exactly the same team only a week later.

One suspects that playing in front of a Croke Park crowd on a Sunday, with a few extra bodies on the terraces and a few more Alan Brogan-shaped men in the dugout, the Dubs will begin to find their groove. They’re not the top-rated team in the country for nothing.

Monaghan had virtually nothing to play for last week so they’re not likely to be quite so fallow again, but Dublin get an 84% nod by Elo and it’s tough to look beyond them.

Cork (5th, 1759) v. Donegal (3rd, 1794)
This one could be a cracker. Cork blew everyone away with their early form and got to rest some of their bigger names in a last-day defeat to Derry who were already relegated. Donegal had to blow off the cobwebs a bit, but will feel the benefit of a draw with Mayo in Castlebar to really test their mettle. Plus, they beat Cork by a point in Ballyshannon when the sides met on the 1st of March.

Elo gives Donegal the nod by just 54% but really this one, on neutral ground, is a total toss-up.

We’re back on Sunday night to see how the semi-finals affect the Elo ratings.

There’s not much left of our calculators after a hectic weekend of permutation-working-out in Divisions 1 and 2. Meath’s defeat of Cavan counted for nothing as Roscommon thumped Westmeath to gain promotion to Division 1 based on head-to-head records; Tyrone led Kerry throughout their match in Omagh and – as a result of the Mayo-Donegal draw – would have relegated their visitors if they could have beaten them by two points or more. Instead, their own draw sends them down to Division 2 along with Derry.

The last week was marked by an insistence in some quarters that gaelic football is dying – largely as a result of the Croke Park game where Dublin beat Derry by 0-8 to 0-4, in horrendous conditions where an Ulster team – faced with the most formidable attack the sport has ever known – decided to play a defensive game. It should be noted that the same Derry team, when the weather and opponent favoured a more pleasing brand of football, scored 2-15.

Round 6 of the NFL saw a total score of 25-312, averaging at 10.5 scores per team. Round 7, played in better weather nationwide, saw a total of 36-399 – 13.5 scores each.

Let it be said: football is not dying, it’s just that nobody plays it very well when faced with pissing rain.

We’ll be back on Thursday to preview the two Division 1 semi-finals.

Permutations! Combinations! Calculations! Other miscellaneous arithmetic terminology! If you’re a reader of a GAA website that tries to put a cold and callous mathematical basis for ranking different teams, the last weekend of the football championships is basically your pornography. Strap on your NSFW tags, folks, because here come the permutations… Continue reading Football preview: Stop! Calculator time

Behold: your new Metropolitan overlords.

For the first time this season, in either code, we have a new side at the top of the Elo ladder. Dublin make the gain thanks to a double-scores win over Derry at a soggy Croke Park, while Kerry’s four-point defeat home to Monaghan sees them lose a hefty chunk of ratings points to the Farney men.

Mayo also lose ground this week after falling to defeat against Cork, while Donegal also gain ground thanks to their handsome win against Tyrone.

Division 2 is thrown wide open thanks to the defeats of Down and Roscommon; Down in particular lose out, with a heavy defeat at home to Meath sending them down three places. Meath make up two of those places; Kildare’s morale-boosting (and potentially season-saving) win in Portlaoise also sees them get a bump.

We’ll be back later in the week to preview the final round of the National Football League group stages.

With only two games left in the round-robin phase, it’s make-or-break time for those who want to start rising up the ranks – and those who want to avoid a slide into darker recesses. Nobody’s fate is yet assured, but plenty of sides could be able to read their futures after this weekend’s action. Continue reading Football preview: Know When To Hold ‘Em

Just as with last week, Meath led at the break after playing against the wind. Just as with last week, Meath scored two points just after half-time to extend their lead. And just as with last week, Meath collapsed and found themselves chasing an injury time equaliser. The only difference this week is that Meath did not get that equaliser. Roscommon were valiant in the second half – scoring goals precisely when they mattered – and now find themselves on the cusp of automatic promotion to Division 1. Their win lifts them two spots to 11th in the updated Elo ratings.

Laois repeated their second-half heroics of last week to outscore Galway by 1-9 to 0-0 in the second half in Salthill. Had they shown such resilience earlier in the season, they may now be mounting a tilt at some silverware.

The only other clash of the weekend saw Leitrim lay rest to London, claiming their first win of the season.

Just three games this weekend – two in Division 2, refixed after the snow of earlier this month, and one in Division 4 taking place early to accommodate travel arrangements for the Londoners.

Division 2

Roscommon (14th, 1385) v. Meath (12th, 1428)
The Division 2 table has looked oddly scattered since these two games were called off, but that helps all sides involved to better gauge their standing in the world – and get a better idea of what’s to be gained or lost in the refixed matches.

The peculiar staggering of the fixtures mean this match sees two sides who won two and drawn one of their previous four. Both sides stand on 5 points out of 8 and a win for either side will see them move into second place, alone, and one point behind Down. As a result, the winners of this game could reasonably expect to face off against the Ulstermen in the Division 2 final next month.

Roscommon have already played – and beaten – Down in Division 2, and will be happy with the Elo form guide that gives them a 56.5% chance of victory.

Meath had another of their Jekyll and Hyde performances last Saturday night, leading Laois by 0-11 to 0-4 early in the second half before needing an injury time point to claim a draw at 0-13 apiece. If they repeat their first-half form, they should win and be in good spirits to face Down in Páirc Esler a week later. If they lose, they’ll visit Newry three points behind their hosts, and facing another season in the doldrums of Division 2 with the important action occurring many miles from Navan.

If Meath ever want to make it back to the top table, it is vital for them to leave Hyde Park with both points.

Galway (15th, 1355) v. Laois (16th, 1305)
There’s only one spot in the table between Galway and Laois but that doesn’t reflect the most immediate form. Galway lost by two points at home to Cavan last week, to leave themselves with 4 out of 8 so far, while Laois came from seven points down in the second half to take a draw in Navan and make it to 3 points. Galway get the nod by 66.6% but Laois will hope for better.

Division 4

Leitrim (29th, 827) v. London (33rd, 540)
Just the one game in Division 4 this weekend – between two of the three sides who have yet to win this year. London have lost all four, while Leitrim have scraped two draws from their four outings so far. (The other side without a win are Derry, out of their depth in Division 1).

Leitrim ought to fancy themselves to get a much-needed win and Elo gives them the 85.6% nod.

The gap between the top two sides is now at its closest all season. Dublin took 56 ratings points from Mayo with their comprehensive win in McHale Park, while Kerry’s narrow win over Donegal only saw 14 points left with the victors. As a result, the gap between the top two is now just 2 points – meaning, if the teams were to meet on a neutral venue today, Kerry would be fancied to win by just 50.2%.

Down are the week’s big risers after a comprehensive away win in Westmeath; at the top, Cork jump to fourth after their one-point win away in Tyrone.

Just as in the hurling, this weekend’s clashes include a repeat of last year’s All-Ireland final. Kerry host Donegal with the visitors perhaps hoping to exact some slight revenge for the morale-bursting defeat of last September.

16 games, so let’s get to it…

Division 1

Mayo (2nd, 1857) v. Dublin (3rd, 1850)
2nd plays 3rd in what, ratings-wise, is likely be the closest match of the weekend. Dublin have only won one of their starting four, and while that won’t be too much to worry about so early in the year, another defeat against Mayo could leave Jim Gavin’s men peering nervously over their shoulders. Home venue tip the balance in Mayo’s favour, 62%.

Kerry (1st, 1894) v. Donegal (4th, 1781)
The repeat of last year’s All-Ireland final seems slightly less of a toss-up than last year’s decider. Both teams are two-from-four and a win would put either in the shake-up for the knockout stages. The stature of Kerry’s victories mean they’re given the nod by 72.7%.

Monaghan (6th, 1644) v. Derry (9th, 1458)
This weekend’s All-Ulster clash could either see Derry almost relegated already, or alternatively the Farney Army put the foot down and stake their claim for the knockout stages as one of Ireland’s premier sides. Elo says the latter is the likely outcome, by 78.8%.

Tyrone (7th, 1639) v. Cork (5th, 1771)
Tyrone have conspired to draw two of their opening four, while Cork’s flying start to the season has left them at the summit with only Mayo’s points difference in the way. Having home venue could be a fillup for Tyrone, though, and Elo gives Cork the narrow approval by 53.7%.

Division 2

Meath (10th, 1440) v. Laois (15th, 1293)
The Division 2 table is still a little patchy because of the postponement of two games due to take place a fortnight ago. Both of these sides saw trips to Connacht delayed; the absence of an extra point or two, as a result, makes it tough to gauge where these teams truly stand. But that’s where Elo comes in – and the Royals get the nod to prevail by 75.7%.

Galway (13th, 1397) v. Cavan (17th, 1234)
Galway are another of the sides to have missed one game, and may have been expected to defeat Laois had the game gone ahead (it takes place next week instead). Galway have a string of likeable games on the way and a win over Cavan (likely by 77%) would make them clear contenders for the final.

Westmeath (19th, 1175) v. Down (12th, 1427)
Down are top of the table right now, with a surprising home loss to Roscommon the only blemish on their record. Westmeath beat Laois and Kildare but were on the wrong end of a hammering in Navan last weekend and will need to figure out where they stand. Down get Elo’s nod by 66.8%.

Kildare (11th, 1437) v. Roscommon (14th, 1342)
Kildare finally rescued some morale with a win away in Cavan last weekend; Roscommon (who have yet to play a fourth game) have yet to determine their standard with one win, one draw and one loss. Kildare are given a 71% likelihood of keeping up the momentum and stave off a relegation fight.

Division 3

Clare (22nd, 1080) v. Armagh (8th, 1488)
Clare aren’t really sure yet where they stand. Good wins against Wexford and Sligo; capitulations against Louth and Tipperary. Armagh are undefeated and have no reason to fear a trip to Cusack Park. 80.5% says they’ll make it a fourth win from five.

Fermanagh (18th, 1178) v. Limerick (25th, 985)
Fermanagh shared the draw with Armagh and have also won all their other games as they climb our ratings table. Limerick started with a win over Sligo but have crumbled since, and Fermanagh are 79.4% to join Armagh on nine points.

Louth (20th, 1154) v. Tipperary (16th, 1243)
Elo’s knife-edge of the weekend. Both sides are won 2, lose 2 and the ratings boost from a home venue gives Louth the nod by a margin of just 51.5%.

Sligo (24th, 1048) v. Wexford (21st, 1085)
A basement battle between sides who have one just one of their four outings so far. The sides have broadly similar ratings but home venue may swing it for Sligo with 57.2%.

Division 4

Offaly (26th, 939) v. Carlow (30th, 706)
The home side have won three of their four; the visitors two. Elo gives the nod to the Offalymen, especially with home venue, get 82.2% favour.

Wicklow (28th, 849) v. Longford (23rd, 1066)
Longford have also made a good fist of things for the last few weeks, with three wins from their four outings to date. Wicklow have one win and one draw, and only get a 36.8% chance of adding to that.

Waterford (31st, 689) v. Antrim (27th, 913)
Both the League table and our Elo ratings make Waterford the weakest league-playing inter-county side after London. One win from four is the reason why. Antrim have five points from eight and are 64% likely to make it seven from ten.

Leitrim (29th, 827) v. London (32nd, 540)
Neither of these sides has yet won a game in their 2015 league campaign – although Leitrim got draws against Longford and Offaly. London get just a 16% chance of getting off the mark in this trip to Carrick-on-Shannon.

Kerry remain top of the football rankings after a hectic weekend, but the manner of their defeat away in Cork means the gap between the teams at the top is becoming all the tighter. It’s conceivable that either Mayo or Dublin could take over at the top of the rankings table after the next round of games.

Mayo move into second with their win in Celtic Park over Derry, leapfrogging Dublin who seep some points because of their home draw with Tyrone.  Galway are the main drop of the week, after losing away to Down. Kildare, thanks to a relieving win on Saturday night against Cavan, also gain one spot.

We’ll be back twice later in the week to preview next weekend’s football.