Author: Gavan Reilly

A lot of travelling involved in Division 1A this weekend. All three of our top-ranked teams hit the road as the league table reaches a key weekend that may confirm, if not who will be in contention for silverware, who will be gunning to avoid the drop.

For the first time this year, all ’34’ counties are in action, so let’s get down to it… Continue reading Hurling preview: ‘Tis Far From Here You Were Reared

We’d already written half of a lengthy sequence about ‘how English people reacted to seeing hurling on Sky Sports’ before we realised that one of the two hurling matches scheduled for this weekend, Longford v Warwickshire, has been pushed back a fortnight.

That leaves the Division 2A clash of London (21, 1069) and Derry (19, 1195) as the sole fixture of the weekend. London are looking out of sorts after two heavy defeats to London and Carlow; Derry have three points from four after a draw with Kerry and a two-point win over Westmeath.

The men from the Oak Leaf County are in good form and have form on their side – but London have calibre and home venue, and accordingly a lesser disadvantage in the Elo modelling stakes. Derry are listed as 53% favourites but this one could really go either way.

Well, how about that? Kilkenny might have saved some pride with a late rally to reduce their deficit to five points – and they feel aggrieved about one of their two red cards – but Dublin at one point led by 14 points and can take pride in having battered both of last year’s All-Ireland and League finalists.

The win in Nowlan Park sends the Dubs up to fourth on the rankings chart, while Galway slide two places in the opposite direction despite a valiant effort in Thurles. Tyrone are the week’s other big winners after defeating Fingal by a single point in Swords.

We’ll be back later in the week with previews of the Football and Hurling league fixtures.

AS IF Cork and Clare needed another excuse to ratchet the tension up a notch or two. The 2013 All-Ireland finalists meet this Saturday evening, both searching for their first win, and both knowing that a defeat will make it all the more difficult to get out of an awkward and demoralising relegation battle.

Here’s our preview of this weekend’s 15 matches in the National Hurling League:

Division 1A

Cork (3, 1953) v Clare (7, 1873)
When there are only six teams in each division, each teams only gets to play five times. That means one defeat can be tolerated (Kilkenny lost two last year on their way to overall League success) but two, especially out of the first two, leaves virtually no margin for error. Cork’s home venue – Páirc Uí Rínn hosts for the second Saturday night in a row – gives them a 69% chance of success.

Kilkenny (1, 2279) v Dublin (6, 1892) 
Kilkenny had no warm-up competition and are missing no fewer than 12 members of the Ballyhale side who are still on All-Ireland business. Not only that, but they played the Hurler of the Year out of position last week… only for Richie Power to score 0-11 from corner-forward, taking over free-taking duties from the absent TJ Reid. Nowlan Park dictates a 90% chance of success over Ger Cunningham’s Dublin on Sunday – who will know that Tipperary, albeit poor, did not merit a 12-point defeat last weekend.

Tipperary (2, 2040) v Galway (4, 1913)
Probably the best clash of the weekend in terms of raw quality and in terms of having something to prove. Tipp will want to make amends for last weekend’s horror show in Parnell Park, while Galway will be keen to show their mettle after last week’s win over Clare. Semple Stadium may make all the difference, with our model giving Tipp a 74% likelihood of success.

Division 1B

Waterford (8, 1771) v Laois (11, 1462)
After escaping Limerick with a draw last week Waterford ought to feel they’re capable of putting away a Laois side who gave Offaly a good frightening last week. That said, Laois are far from also-rans and probably deserve more than the 14% chance of success our model gives them.

Antrim (12, 1447) v Limerick (5, 1896)
Antrim gave Wexford an almighty shakedown last week and may feel like this week’s odds of 16.7% are far from reflective of their chances of success. Limerick’s rating reflects their Championship exploits last year but, after flexing their muscles last week, should feel capable of living up to their rating.

Offaly (10, 1587) v Wexford (9, 1697)
Offaly snuck out of Portlaoise with both points last week; Wexford snuck out of Wexford Park with the scalp of Antrim and a mighty sigh of relief. This clash between two sides on a similar footing, ratings-wise, could be the clash of the weekend. Wexford are favoured with a mere 51.2% chance of success.

Division 2A

Derry (19, 1173) v Westmeath (17, 1268)
As a Liam MacCarthy side, Westmeath quite probably ought to be higher on our ratings – but the nature of the hurling structure, and the fact that teams tend to play those of their own ‘grade’ more often, means a steady string of defeats sends them further down the list. If they want to prove they’re better than 17th, and would deserve to be considered favourites for promotion, they’ll need to do better than the 49.5% chance of success that our model gives them, partly skewed by Derry’s home venue.

London (21, 1099) v Carlow (14, 1313)
London were on the wrong end of a 26-9 scoreline last week against Westmeath; Carlow were on the right-end of a 26-9 scoreline against Wicklow. Only a bumpy ride to Aughrim ought to pose any challenge – our model gives them a 90% chance of victory.

Wicklow (20, 1104) v Kerry (13, 1412)
Kerry, who are regularly there or thereabouts in the Christy Ring stakes, are really only one breakthrough season away from knocking on the door of promotion to Division 1. After a hectic draw against Derry last week, a 73% chance of success this week points to the prospect of a tilt at the Division 2.

Division 2B

Armagh (26, 847) v Donegal (23, 944)
Assuming a home venue gives a team an artificial 100-point ratings boost, this game is technically the closest of the weekend, and Armagh are favoured statistically with a mere 50.3% chance of success. Both sides are bruised from defeats last week and will want to get their challenges back on track.

Kildare (15, 1278) v Down (16, 1269)
Down and Kildare are among the other sides who regularly knock on the door of Christy Ring success, and both will be happy with their victories last week. Having disposed of Meath with such relative ease, Kildare are favoured with a 62.3% likelihood of making it two-from-two.

Mayo (22, 1035) v Meath (18, 1199)
Mayo will be happy to have escaped Donegal with two points, while Meath will be feeling very deflated after following their O’Byrne Cup win with a 10-point massacre in Trim at home to Kildare. The visitors are favoured with a 57% chance of getting their season back on track.

Division 3A

Fingal (24, 925) v Tyrone (26, 874)
Fingal are a side very much on the up, and should find it easier to flex their muscles at home against a Tyrone side who may already be a pinch ragged from a draw against Monaghan last week. Fingal have a two-thirds chance of success.

Louth (28, 715) v Fermanagh (29, 670)
Another game in which the home side has a two-thirds chance of winning. Louth will be itching for better after a double-scores loss to Roscommon last week, while Fermanagh will want for better than they showed against Fingal.

Monaghan (30, 645) v Roscommon (25, 916)
Monaghan got a draw from Tyrone last week, in yet another result that lends weight to our theory that Ulster hurling, though perhaps not of the best standard, has a better classic-to-dud ratio than the other provinces. However, Roscommon will be in good form after last week’s hammering of Louth and are 69% favourites to progress their campaign back to Division 2B.

We’ll be back after the weekend with the latest GAA Hurling rankings.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Kilkenny don’t get a warm-up competition, miss a dozen players to club duty, move their Hurler of the Year from midfield to corner-forward, and an All-Star corner back into full back. But yet Richie Hogan goes and scores 11 points, Paul Murphy is excellent in the Number 3 shirt, and the production line keeps on rolling.

Kildare are the week’s big movers, up 3 places, after a fine win over Meath in Trim. Galway’s win over Clare sees them move into fourth, while the Banner go down to seventh, leapfrogged by Dublin who get a bounce from their win over Tipp.

We’ll be back later in the week with a preview of the Round 2 fixtures.

For any other team – in perhaps any other team sport in the world – losing players with 29 championship titles between them would be a devastating loss. For Kilkenny, it’s merely the departure of four older men – none of whom were ‘good’ enough to make the starting 15 when the latest of those titles was claimed.

Indeed, David Herity, Aidan Fogarty and Tommy Walsh might even consider themselves lucky that they didn’t finish their careers in the same way as Brian Hogan – giving away the (harsh?) harsh injury-time free that may well have cost Kilkenny the All-Ireland. Such are the standards that Kilkenny set for themselves.

The Cats may have lost twice and drawn twice last year, but when it comes to silverware – and that’s what counts in this game – they won literally everything. After failing to make it to Croke Park at all in 2013, their first visit in 2014 – almost out of spite – was destined to land the Walsh Cup. Three thrillers against Tipperary then bred League and All-Ireland success.

It’s sad in many ways that so many other wonderful hurling counties, and wonderful honest-to-God hurlers, will be historical footnotes by sheer accident of chronology. But there are two days of looking at Kilkenny’s success – it’s either a sign of a sport in an uncompetitive crisis, or a gauntlet thrown down for others to aspire to. Thankfully the era of Sheedy, Ryan and O’Shea has left Tipperary as worthy opponents, while the Championship outings of Clare, Cork and Limerick in the last two years also mean there is room for optimism. Cody and company may be raising the standard, but the rest are keen to match them – and the sport is all the better for it.

As you’ll see below, the sheer spread between the strongest and weakest counties is far wider in our hurling ratings than for football – but that’s hardly a surprise looking at the realities of the modern hurling landscape. The basis for calculations in hurling are slightly different than those of football, to account for the structure of the Championships and the impact that the lower-tier tournaments have for each participating county. The Calculations page will explain more.

There are 15 NHL matches this weekend so this time we’ll go without a general preview, save to point out that Saturday’s clash of Laois and Offaly in Division 1B is not only a local derby, but now a match between two keenly-matched sides.

Another game worth watching out for is Meath v Kildare in Division 2B – of two sides who are not only bitter local rivals, and who seem to meet each other in almost every competition every year, but of two teams who are now absolutely desperate to get to Division 2A as a breeding programme before a tilt at Christy Ring honours. If it’s anything as good as the football clash between the same counties last week, it could be a thriller.

One final note: the newly-formed Lancashire team aren’t participating in the National Hurling League, but they’ll be given a provisional rating of 250 when they begin their conquest in the Lory Meagher Cup. To think: that All-Ireland competition will include a match between Lancashire and Warwickshire, while Cavan fails to field a senior inter-county team…

Feel free to comment below, or tweet us @GAArankings (or @gavreilly) with your gripes, questions, observations and craic. We’ll be back after the weekend with the first update to the 2015 ratings.