Hurling review: Summer of 69+1

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More often than not, Kilkenny win the Leinster championship. Just under half the time they do it, they end up winning the All-Ireland. Galway might have put up a show and given them sixty minutes of discomfort, but take the two magical goals out of the equation, either side of half-time, and the scoreline becomes 1-25 to 0-15. For the Cats, it’s Leinster title number 70.

Little surprise in the Round 1 qualifiers, with Clare demolishing Offaly, Cork putting enough daylight ahead of Wexford that a late rally didn’t scare them, Limerick disposing of Westmeath and Dublin doing just fine over Laois. Next week’s qualifiers will tell us more about the true state of the four victors – but just as quickly as those games come around, the summer will be over. Including the provincial final in Ulster, there are now just nine senior hurling matches left this year. (There are 23 in football.)

It’s getting to the time of year where we can soon dispense with the rankings from the lower rungs of the hurling table – true to form, the sides rated 9th, 10th, 12th and 13th were all defeated by sides rated 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th. The ratings contract but the only switch in rankings, after this weekend, is that Offaly’s hammering in Cusack Park sees them nudge below Kerry on the table.

Hurling rankings
(w/e July 5th, 2015)
1 Kilkenny 2202
2 Tipperary 2142
3 Waterford 1982
4 Cork 1979
5 Galway 1914
6 Dublin 1875
7 Limerick 1864
8 Clare 1834
9 Wexford 1683
10 (+1) Kerry 1534
11 (-1) Offaly 1531
12 Laois 1499
13 Westmeath 1334
14 Carlow 1311
15 Kildare 1286
16 Down 1286
17 Antrim 1279
18 Meath 1199
19 Derry 1184
20 London 1097
21 Roscommon 1080
22 Wicklow 1061
23 Armagh 988
24 Tyrone 922
25 Donegal 894
26 Mayo 863
27 Fingal 768
28 Monaghan 743
29 Longford 610
30 Fermanagh 609
31 Louth 575
32 Warwicks 522
33 Leitrim 367
34 Sligo 364
35 Lancashire 173

Hurling preview: Where the air is free

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Leinster SHC final

Kilkenny (1st, 2183) v. Galway (5th, 1933)
First to headquarters, where the reigning champions take on one of the two sides who pushed them to a replay in 2014. The strength of Kilkenny’s semi-final hammering of Wexford should give them some enthusiasm, but Galway could hardly have asked for a better run-in to this final – one game against Dublin to blow away the cobwebs before destroying them in the replay, and then an obliteration of Laois to make it to the decider. Kilkenny’s previous history gives them an Elo favourability of 76% but if Galway start early and get a couple of quick goals, who knows…

All-Ireland SHC qualifiers, round 1

Laois (12th, 1523) v. Dublin (6th, 1851)
The crowning achievement of a win over Offaly may be the extent of the Laois summer. Or it may not – after the defeat to Galway, Laois now get home venue against a Dublin side who were equally hammered by the Tribesmen, albeit after a replay. Dublin’s previous ventures, and status in Division 1A, suggests they should be safe enough. Elo gives them a 74.1% nod.

Clare (8th, 1815) v. Offaly (10th, 1550)
Clare haven’t had much fun since their 2013 All-Ireland success. A home draw against Offaly might give them a chance to work up a head of steam – especially as the fates have aligned to give Clare a double-header with the football too. Offaly, off the back of losing to Laois, are just 16% to avoid a double defeat and an early summer off.

Wexford (9th, 1712) v. Cork (4th, 1950)
The tie of the round – with Wexford Park quickly becoming a place that not many sides want to visit. Cork only have the Waterford defeat under their belts and nobody is quite sure what they’re made of yet – though they do, of course, have a League final in their recent past. Wexford, likewise, have only a win over Westmeath for form. This could be a damp squib, or a cracker – let’s hope for the latter. Cork get the nod, 65.4%.

Westmeath (13th, 1349) v. Limerick (7th, 1849)
Westmeath’s reward for making it through the group stage of the Leinster championship was a defeat by Wexford, but now another home tie – this time against Limerick, who put in a good day’s work in defeating Clare first time out. On that basis alone, their Elo probability of 84.3% seems justified.

Football preview: The Munster Clásico

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July. Mundy’s favourite month of the year – and although there are already eight teams dumped out of the football championship, only now does it feel like the summer is beginning to take off. What is it about the glint of silverware that gets the gears moving? Cork and Kerry may be the only ones that can tell us – the Munster football decider is among the few competitive provincial showpieces left in the calendar.

Munster SFC final

Kerry (2nd, 1856) v. Cork (5th, 1775)
Kerry get the honour of hosting that decider in Fitzgerald Stadium, which could well end up being one of the crucial factors in deciding the outcome. Neither has had much of a challenge thus far – Kerry disposing of Tipperary, Cork overcoming Clare – and so with each county flying blind, the tie is more likely to be decided by the sheer class of each side and their ability to turn on the style without much of a warm-up. Kerry’s record – as All-Ireland champions, no less – suggests they’ll find it slightly easier to do so, and Elo gives them a 69.7% chance of success.

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers: Round 2A

Cavan (15th, 1276) v. Roscommon (13th, 1361)
This one could be the closest of the four. The two sides drew in Division 2 in the league, and Cavan were in the promotion hunt right up until the final day. Roscommon pipped them into Division 1 but then slumped to a riotous Sligo a couple of weeks ago and now find themselves with a tricky away assignment to Kingspan Breffni Park. That home venue essentially makes the sides equal in Elo’s eyes, with Cavan scraping the nod by 51.7%.

Offaly (26th, 993) v. Kildare (9th, 1439)
After the blue tsunami, what next for Kildare? In the grand scheme of things, a trip to O’Connor Park – to a side that lost to Longford before beating lowly Waterford – is not the worst assignment. In fact, such is Offaly’s low standing in the grand scheme of things that they only get a 16.9% chance of defeating their Leinster neighbours. That said, if there’s ever a time to meet a neighbour, it’s after they’ve been give a 19-point hammering at headquarters…

Clare (22nd, 1081) v. Longford (23rd, 1067)
These two are the most evenly-matched sides to meet this weekend – there are only a handful of Elo points between them – meaning the home venue of Cusack Park is key for the Banner. Longford make the trip off the back of dismantling lowly Carlow – their fourth match of the summer – while Clare nipped past Limerick before being demolished by Cork. Clare get the Elo nod by 62.8% but given the feelgood factor around Longford the game ought to be a bit closer…

Fermanagh (20th, 1194) v. Antrim (27th, 955)
An all-Ulster clash wraps up the round. Fermanagh gave Monaghan a good rattle in the Ulster semi-final while Antrim are here courtesy of their shock win over Laois… which was only necessary because they lost to Antrim in Brewster Park in the Ulster Championship. No reason to think this one won’t end similarly. Fermanagh get the nod, 82.7%.

Football review: Maroon High-Five

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As a Meathman there are certain things you just expect – certain records you grow to interpret as concrete rules, rather than historical quirks. One is that Meath Don’t Lose Replays – a rule which finally came to an end in 2007, when Dublin beat us in a Leinster quarter-final replay. But in 128 years of Championship football, that’s the only time Meath have been beaten on the second time of asking.

The other is that Meath Do Not Lose To Westmeath. 23rd time lucky. To Westmeath’s eternal credit, at half-time last Sunday, they could easily have succumbed to that same mindset and fought simply for a respectable scoreline. But onwards they trudged, and the result is there for all to see. Their win is a shot in the arm for the provincial championships and a reminder of everything that’s good about the Irish sporting summer.

Elsewhere, Donegal weren’t quite so sparkling as they disposed of Derry – but then again, as a departing Division 1 side Derry would never have been a pushover – and Dublin were… well, Dublin. Is there anyone to stop them? Dublin now have a higher rating than Kerry did after winning Sam last year – and, in fact, than any recent All-Ireland team (other than themselves in 2013). This blue bandwagon will take some beating.

The historic win sends Westmeath hurtling four places higher in the ratings, with Meath going two places in the wrong direction. Kildare, the team dismantled on Sunday, are now considered the second-best team in Leinster…

Football rankings
(w/e June 28, 2015)
1 Dublin 1977
2 Kerry 1856
3 Donegal 1836
4 Mayo 1797
5 Cork 1775
6 Monaghan 1700
7 Tyrone 1588
8 Derry 1497
9 (+1) Kildare 1439
10 (+1) Armagh 1417
11 (-2) Meath 1407
12 Galway 1381
13 (+1) Roscommon 1361
14 (-1) Down 1310
15 Cavan 1276
16 (+4) Westmeath 1255
17 (-1) Tipperary 1238
18 (-1) Laois 1207
19 (-1) Sligo 1205
20 (-1) Fermanagh 1194
21 (+2) Wexford 1086
22 (-1) Clare 1081
23 (-1) Longford 1067
24 (+1) Louth 1046
25 (-1) Limerick 1016
26 Offaly 993
27 Antrim 955
28 Leitrim 849
29 Wicklow 761
30 Carlow 682
31 Waterford 616
32 London 563

Hurling mini-review: Tables turning?

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Only the one hurling match last weekend but – as we promised – it was a good one between Down and Derry, with Down winning out 3-16 to 1-17 away to their Christy Ring finalist hosts. Down will return to the same venue in a fortnight for a chance at Antrim – with a genuine hope of breaking the Saffrons’ stranglehold on the Ulster title.

And we mean it. With their win, Down now overhaul their local rivals and should have a decent shot when the sides meet again on Saturday week.

Hurling rankings
(w/e June 28, 2015)
14 Carlow 1311
15 Kildare 1286
16 (+1) Down 1286
17 (-1) Antrim 1279
18 (+1) Meath 1199
19 (-1) Derry 1184
20 London 1097
21 Roscommon 1080

Football preview: And I Swear It All Over Again

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It’s funny how it only feels like the summer is getting going once some teams start to reach the ends of their roads. Five counties have already finished their seasons and another four will meet their demise this week.

But despite the summer ‘getting going’ with seven games this weekend, as we’ll see here, almost every game is a foregone conclusion. As ever, it will be well into July before the neutral’s summer really starts.

Ulster SFC semi-final

Derry (8th, 1513) v. Donegal (3rd, 1820)
Monaghan await the winners of this clash but given the manner of their wins against Tyrone and Armagh, it’s hardly to look beyond the incumbent Ulster champions. No home venue in this one and realistically the only hope Derry might have had was creating a cauldron in Celtic Park. As it is, Donegal travel to Clones with a 80% expectation of winning out.

Leinster SFC semi-finals

Meath (9th, 1471) v. Westmeath (20th, 1191)
Westmeath’s home win in the quarter-finals looked good on paper – a nine-point win over Wexford – but the scoreline flattered given Wexford were toe-to-toe with them until the last ten minutes. Meath, at home to lowly Wicklow, only won by four points but were missing most of their first-choice defenders due to an unlikely spate of finger injuries. There’s always some spice in this derby but if Meath get their full compliment back, Elo gives them a 78.4% of surviving.

Dublin (1st, 1969) v. Kildare (10th, 1447)
Sure, lookit. It’s the Dubs in Croker. In the Leinster Championship. Against a team that got relegated from Division 2 and needed two games to put Laois to the sword. 94.6% to the Dubs. The bookies make the handicap 11 points – but it’s a while since Dublin won a Leinster match by less than that…

All-Ireland SFC Qualifiers: Round 1B

Louth (25th, 1021) v. Leitrim (28th, 874)
Louth only got a day out against Westmeath, while Leitrim didn’t give Galway much of a game in Connacht. On paper that should make this one a tough call, but thankfully that’s where Elo can shed some light: with the benefit of home venue, Louth by 75.7%.

Armagh (11th, 1414) v. Wicklow (29th, 764)
Armagh will know they couldn’t possibly be as bad again as they were against the awesome Donegal last time. Wicklow, on the other hand, may also feel like they couldn’t possibly be as competitive again – scoring 3-12 – as they did in their outing against Meath. Armagh get the nod by a quite staggering 96.9%.

Wexford (23rd, 1028) v. Down (13th, 1368)
After going great guns in Mullingar for an hour, Wexford should feel they have a hope with a home draw in the qualifiers. Unfortunately they meet Down, promoted from Division 2 and losers by only one point against Derry. Their calibre should see them through. The visitors get the nod, 75.1%.

Tyrone (7th, 1583) v. Limerick (24th, 1021)
Tyrone are clearly out of sorts but, when it comes to it, are still Tyrone. Limerick could only come within two points of Clare, who then lost by 12 to Cork. Washout. 95.5%.

Hurling mini-preview: Kings in the North

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Only the one match to preview this weekend: the semi-final in the largely forgotten-about Ulster Hurling Championship. But while few will look on, this – as many Ulster hurling matches are – is worth keeping a loose eye on.

The Ulster championship has been largely Antrim’s preserve in recent years, and based on recent history the Saffrons get a bye into the final this year. But with Antrim on the back of their poorest season in a long time – relegated to the Christy Ring Cup and Division 2A – Derry (18th, 1208) and Down (17th, 1262) will both think some silverware is there to be won.

Derry had a good Ring campaign, succumbing only to Kerry in the final, but it was that defeat alone which pushed them below Down in our rankings. The sides are near-equals and Derry get the nod from Elo – 55.3% – solely because they get to host this match in Owenbeg.

Antrim are only 16th (1279) in the rankings and the side who wins this semi-final will be their equal for the decider a week later. In a weekend where there’s no other small-ball action, the meeting of Down and Derry will be one to watch.

Hurling review: The runners and the also-rans

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Those of the footballing persuasion will by now be bored to death by perpetual discussions of needing to re-tier the All-Ireland Championships. ‘Something simply must be done,’ some will shriek, ‘so that Longford don’t have to get a demoralising 25-point defeat to Dublin every year.’ To be fair, this writer is often among them.

Perhaps the Leinster semi-finals may be food for thought that way. Hurling is often looked to as the role model for a tiered Championship to stop annual batterings, but the combined margin of victory in the two Leinster hurling semi-finals was 44 points. One of the two Munster semi-finals was won by 16. Perhaps it’s best just to acknowledge that no matter how the Championship is structured, there will always be brilliant teams who can destroy the mere mortals.

At this early stage in the season it certainly seems as if the four teams making it to the provincial finals are the ones with the best chance of silverware. Galway now seem to have found their footing, Waterford have two cups under their belts and are yet to be beaten this year in any competition, while Kilkenny and Tipperary proved this weekend why they make it to so many All-Ireland finals: on a good day they’re close to unstoppable.

Their wins put them further clear of the chasing back, while Limerick’s defeat at home sees them seep one spot to 7th. Laois, likewise, slide one spot to 12th thanks to their heavy defeat.

Hurling rankings
(w/e June 21, 2015)
1 Kilkenny 2183
2 Tipperary 2142
3 Waterford 1982
4 Cork 1950
5 Galway 1933
6 (+1) Dublin 1851
7 (-1) Limerick 1849
8 Clare 1815
9 Wexford 1712
10 Offaly 1550
11 (+1) Kerry 1534
12 (-1) Laois 1523
13 Westmeath 1349
14 Carlow 1311
15 Kildare 1286
16 Antrim 1279
17 Down 1262
18 Derry 1208
19 Meath 1199
20 London 1097
21 Roscommon 1080
22 Wicklow 1061
23 Armagh 988
24 Tyrone 922
25 Donegal 894
26 Mayo 863
27 Fingal 768
28 Monaghan 743
29 Longford 610
30 Fermanagh 609
31 Louth 575
32 Warwickshire 522
33 Leitrim 367
34 Sligo 364
35 Lancashire 173

Football review: Dark just after the dawn

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Well now. Just when Laois looked like they might have the beating of Kildare, they go and lose to Antrim; just when Roscommon look like a possible contender to unseat Mayo in Connacht.

That result in Connacht bears the main influence on the rankings after the weekend – Sligo’s heroics see them jump two places to 18th, while Roscommon slump three places and fall to 14th.

Football rankings
(w/e June 21, 2015)
1 Dublin 1969
2 Kerry 1856
3 Donegal 1820
4 Mayo 1797
5 Cork 1775
6 Monaghan 1700
7 Tyrone 1583
8 Derry 1513
9 Meath 1471
10 Kildare 1447
11 (+1) Armagh 1414
12 (+1) Galway 1381
13 (+1) Down 1368
14 (-3) Roscommon 1361
15 Cavan 1276
16 (+1) Tipperary 1238
17 (-1) Laois 1207
18 (+2) Sligo 1205
19 (-1) Fermanagh 1194
20 (-1) Westmeath 1191
21 Clare 1081
22 Longford 1067
23 Wexford 1028
24 Limerick 1021
25 Louth 1021
26 Offaly 993
27 Antrim 955
28 Leitrim 874
29 Wicklow 764
30 Carlow 682
31 Waterford 616
32 London 563

Hurling preview: How many more lives?

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There was a narrative in last week’s football championship that a good team simply gets less good by not playing for a while. Kerry, Mayo and Cork were all supposed to get weaker simply for the lack of Championship exercise. How’d all that work out? All three won, fairly easily.

Perhaps there’s a similar logic to be expressed in the hurling championship, as last year’s All-Ireland finalists make their 2015 debuts. Kilkenny and Tipperary might not have forgotten how to win, but their opponents might at least hope they’re a little bit ring-rusty.

Munster SHC semi-final

Limerick (6th, 1890) v. Tipperary (2nd, 2101)
We start in the Gaelic Grounds where Limerick, having overcome Clare, get home advantage for the visit of last year’s national runners-up. That day out may suit Limerick and help to blow off some cobwebs – it’s now almost three months since Tipperary’s last outing – but there’s also the converse logic that a side drawn into a Munster quarter-final also runs itself too ragged by the time it makes it to the provincial final. Tipperary, based purely on their previous calibre, are 62.5% favourites.

Leinster SHC semi-finals

Kilkenny (1st, 2174) v. Wexford (9th, 1721)
Wexford might have preferred to get this one played elsewhere. Thus far their only outing was against Westmeath, and their reward is a visit to the home of the All-Ireland champions. (The two sides last met in Leinster four years ago, in Wexford Park: Kilkenny were due a return.) Kilkenny have lost some of their previous warriors, but of all their retirees, only one was considered ‘good’ enough to play in last year’s All-Ireland replay. The Cats get the nod by 92.7%.

Galway (5th, 1921) v. Laois (11th, 1535)
It’s a similarly one-sided affair on the cards in Tullamore – Galway’s de-facto home venue in Leinster – who face Laois. The Midlanders escaped the round-robin phase before disposing of Offaly, so this would be their fifth outing of the summer, while Galway are already on their third. But one would be fanciful to think Galway could collapse as easily as the Faithful did on Laois’s last day out. Elo says Galway by 90.4%.

Ulster SHC quarter-finals

Derry (18th, 1202) v. Donegal (25th, 900)
You won’t hear much about it this weekend – or, frankly, ever – but the Ulster hurling championship is quite possibly the most entertaining of any of the provincial pots. True, the standard might not be awesome, but there’s energy and pride in the performances – and the scorelines usually reflect a keenly-contested competition, even if Antrim almost always win it.

The Saffrons are given an automatic spot in final this year, with four other teams playing off for the right to meet them. Derry were defeated finalists in the Christy Ring Cup and should have no bother disposing of their neighbours in Celtic Park. Elo says Derry by 86.4%.

Armagh (23rd, 1007) v. Down (17th, 1243)
A slightly more even contest could be offered in the Athletic Grounds, but onetime Christy Ring contenders Down ought to have enough firepower to dispose of the Nicky Rackard runners-up. Elo agrees, favouring Armagh by 65.2%.