Author: Gavan Reilly

IT’S ALMOST LIKE something from a decade ago. Kerry and Tyrone, locking horns in the latter part of an All-Ireland football championship.

Kerry (2nd, 1913) on the face of it seem like obvious favourites. They’re the reigning champions, they had two decent tests in the provincial finals against Cork, and have made it here through the straightforward way.

Tyrone (5th, 1723) on the other hand have had to come the hard road. They were the first team eliminated from the Ulster championship (by Donegal in the preliminary round) but they’re now the last surviving northern side, having come the whole way through four rounds of qualifiers and a nasty quarter-final against Monaghan. This match will be their seventh of the summer, and it must be said that while they’ve never looked mighty, they’ve become increasingly strong as the summer has gone on.

So where does that leave us? Elo is keen on form but blind on momentum. On that scale, Kerry are 70.6% favourites. But whether the heart follows the head…

…or, in some cases, not-so-slowly. Monaghan’s failure at the third-last hurdle means it’s not a clean sweep of provincial champions in the semi-finals, and sees them fall down the rankings faster than Tiernan McCann after hitting a hairbrush.

Mayo are now up to third and within striking distance of the top two, while Donegal sit fourth. Tyrone, Ulster’s last remaining representative in the championship despite being beaten in its first provincial game, are up to fifth. They haven’t gone away, you know…

Seven weeks to go before the All-Ireland final; only three more matches after this weekend, and the Championship has Not Yet Caught Fire™. Will this be the weekend it finally happens?

The lay of the land is that six of the top seven-ranked teams remain. 3rd plays 4th for the chance to face the team in 1st; 5th plays 7th with the winner facing the team in 2nd. It’s weighted well, if only the teams can provide the spark.

All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals

Mayo (4th, 1797) v. Donegal (3rd, 1816)
After already predicting Westmeath v Fermanagh could be The Match Of The Season, we hereby revoke the previous prediction and suggest that this one may in fact be the closest game of the year. There’s virtually nothing between these sides in Elo terms – Donegal are favourites by 52.2% – but that’s only off the back of their strong win over Galway. Mayo were higher-rated otherwise.

There are conflicting intuitions here. After their loss to Monaghan, Donegal will now only have a week between their win over Galway and their clash with Mayo. Fatigue might be a slight issue. But on the other side, their own win over Galway is as far as Mayo have been pushed all year: after destroying Sligo, is it possible to turn on the style and deal with the muscular menace of the perennial Ulster contenders?

To further put the game on tenterhooks: the League match between the two was a draw.

Monaghan (5th, 1742) v. Tyrone (7th, 1644)
There’s a little more of a gap between these two sides, but despite going into the game as Ulster champions, Monaghan are far from a dead cert in this clash against a Tyrone team which has successfully navigated all four rounds of the qualifiers after their opening-day loss to Donegal. After starting the summer with the dull thud of a dead cat bouncing, Mickey Harte’s team have managed to brush off some cobwebs and progressively improved to look like something resembling (albeit not replicating) the famed squads of olde.

Monaghan, on the flip side, beat Donegal but got that far by the benefit of a relatively comfortable draw in the Ulster championship. They’ll be thankful that their sternest test thus far was also on their last day out.

Monaghan get Elo’s nod by 61.1% but one suspects there might not be much in this by the final whistle.

IT WAS PREDICTED. Last weekend we were far from the only people to think all four matches would result in easy wins for the favourites. But this is the nature of a semi-randomised fixtures draw: before the advent of the qualifiers it was simply the case that there were only a few landmark games each summer, and the championship only ‘caught fire’ because counties were much more emotionally tied up in an undefeated streak. If you put in more games, and offer a greater chance for lesser sides to feature in the latter stages, it’s a simple truth that you will then get heavy defeats at a later point in the summer.

That said, it wasn’t all that fun to watch, was it?

Donegal’s victory over Galway sends them into third, leapfrogging Mayo who they now face next weekend in what may finally Set Fire To The Championship. Fermanagh’s eight-point defeat by the Dubs sees them concede just enough ratings points to fall below Down into 15th.

Last weekend’s two qualifiers both went against the book – Kildare killing off Cork, and Fermanagh obliterating Westmeath. Observers will hope that the form guide goes out the window this weekend too – because otherwise none of the four games might offer much by way of entertainment…

All-Ireland SFC qualifiers: Round 4b

Donegal (4th, 1794) v. Galway (9th, 1480)
Donegal were only the width of a shoelace away from a draw in the Ulster final and ought to perhaps think it is almost their birthright to be playing in Headquarters in August. Galway, though, have been the standout team of the qualifiers, disposing of Armagh and Derry after giving Mayo their sternest test of the Connacht campaign. Is that enough to give them the confidence for a Triple Crown over Ulster sides? Perhaps, but Elo doesn’t think so. Donegal by 80.9%.

Sligo (19th, 1205) v. Tyrone (7th, 1633)
The second match in Croker isn’t much more competitive either. Sligo were a surprise entrant to the Connacht final and didn’t get much for their efforts as Mayo simply destroyed them. Tyrone went out early to Donegal in Ulster but have rehabilitated themselves with wins over Limerick, Meath and Tipperary. Elo say they’re 87.8% to complete the qualifier route back to the quarter-finals.

All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals

Dublin (1st, 1980) v. Fermanagh (14th, 1313) 
One suspects the Dubs would have liked a sterner test at this level – they likely face Kerry in the semi-final, after virtually coasting the whole way through – but will have to make do with Fermanagh for now. Peter McGrath’s charges have had a great summer – they gave Monaghan serious rattle for the best part of an hour before they were finally shaken off by the Ulster champions – and if it’s Ulster defences that manage to unsettle Dublin, this one could be fascinating. Elo says the Dubs have this one by 97.5% but we all might hope it’s more close-run than that.

Kerry (2nd, 1878) v. Kildare (8th, 1542)
After their heavy loss to Dublin in the Leinster semi-final, Kildare only just about rehabilitated their confidence with wins over Offaly and Longford before their surprise eight-point win over a bruised Cork. But will that be enough to help them surmount the reigning All-Ireland champions? Personally, we think not, and nor does Elo (82.4%). That said, if Kildare can get rid of Cork that easily, and Cork should have beaten Kerry in the drawn Munster final…